thesis terminal

{
  "structure": "swing",
  "title": "Long SOL swing, days, tiny risk",
  "legs": [
    {
      "kind": "perp",
      "coin": "SOL",
      "side": "long",
      "notionalUsd": 499.46,
      "qty": 4.52,
      "leverage": 20,
      "marginMode": "isolated",
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 110.5
      },
      "stop": {
        "px": 105.37,
        "pct": 4.64
      },
      "takeProfits": [
        {
          "px": 115.63,
          "pct": 4.64,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        },
        {
          "px": 120.75,
          "pct": 9.28,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        }
      ],
      "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (4.6% from the 111 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
    }
  ],
  "riskUsd": 24.97,
  "riskKind": "margin_posted",
  "horizon": "days",
  "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.15,
  "warnings": [
    "A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
    "Defined risk here means isolated margin: the margin posted is the hard cap, and the rest of the account cannot be pulled in. It is not an option, and a gap can still cost the whole margin.",
    "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
    "This uses high leverage. Liquidation sits close to the stop, so a wick can close the position before the idea is wrong. The largest leg here is $499.46 of SOL at 20x isolated margin."
  ],
  "components": [
    {
      "type": "ticket_header",
      "props": {
        "title": "Long SOL swing, days, tiny risk",
        "structure": "swing",
        "view": "directional",
        "horizon": "days",
        "structureFit": 0.93
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "market_strip",
      "props": {
        "coin": "SOL",
        "mid": 110.17,
        "atrPct1h": 0.6321,
        "fundingApr": 10.95,
        "ret24hPct": -3.1,
        "ret7dPct": 8.35,
        "rangePos48h": 0.6785,
        "betaToBtc30d": -0.2741
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 0,
        "kind": "perp",
        "coin": "SOL",
        "side": "long",
        "notionalUsd": 499.46,
        "qty": 4.52,
        "leverage": 20,
        "marginMode": "isolated",
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 110.5,
        "stopPx": 105.37,
        "stopPct": 4.64,
        "takeProfits": [
          {
            "px": 115.63,
            "pct": 4.64,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          },
          {
            "px": 120.75,
            "pct": 9.28,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          }
        ],
        "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (4.6% from the 111 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "risk_box",
      "props": {
        "riskUsd": 24.97,
        "riskKind": "margin_posted",
        "riskLabel": "margin posted",
        "maxLossNote": "Isolated margin of $24.97 is the hard cap - nothing else in the account can be pulled in. The stop at 105 should fill first and costs about $23.19; a gap through it can still cost the whole margin.",
        "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.15
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "compare_hold",
      "props": {
        "note": "Versus just holding: this posts $24.97 of margin (0.25% of a nominal. $499.46 of SOL held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "gap_risk_stops",
        "text": "A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "defined_risk_via_isolated_margin",
        "text": "Defined risk here means isolated margin: the margin posted is the hard cap, and the rest of the account cannot be pulled in. It is not an option, and a gap can still cost the whole margin.",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "nominal_account_assumed",
        "text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "high_leverage",
        "text": "This uses high leverage. Liquidation sits close to the stop, so a wick can close the position before the idea is wrong. The largest leg here is $499.46 of SOL at 20x isolated margin.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "SOL",
        "url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/SOL"
      }
    }
  ],
  "market": {
    "SOL": {
      "coin": "SOL",
      "mid": 110.17,
      "markPx": 110.17,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 628991983.5350001,
      "vol24hUsd": 150104499.5538001,
      "maxLeverage": 20,
      "szDecimals": 2,
      "atrPct1h": 0.6320884666383445,
      "ret24hPct": -3.0961386225701437,
      "ret7dPct": 8.34972462627852,
      "rangePos48h": 0.678461538461539,
      "hi30d": 114.35,
      "lo30d": 84.017,
      "betaToBtc30d": -0.2740863070474121,
      "asOf": 1789869519815,
      "dex": null
    },
    "BTC": {
      "coin": "BTC",
      "mid": 81110,
      "markPx": 81110,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 3428904203.577192,
      "vol24hUsd": 1175482767.1554918,
      "maxLeverage": 40,
      "szDecimals": 5,
      "atrPct1h": 0.32460346735521944,
      "ret24hPct": -0.7585953750152918,
      "ret7dPct": 5.006278886112647,
      "rangePos48h": 0.8392014519056261,
      "hi30d": 82268,
      "lo30d": 68898,
      "betaToBtc30d": 1,
      "asOf": 1789869519815,
      "dex": null
    }
  },
  "reader": {
    "structureConfidence": 0.93,
    "alternatives": [
      {
        "structure": "swing",
        "p": 0.96
      },
      {
        "structure": "event fade, defined risk",
        "p": 0.04
      }
    ],
    "trace": {
      "ms": 160,
      "input_tokens": 1017,
      "answers": {
        "structure": {
          "value": "perp_swing",
          "confidence": 0.93,
          "probabilities": {
            "event_fade_defined_risk": 0.04,
            "perp_swing": 0.96
          }
        },
        "warn_crowded_long": {
          "value": 0.17,
          "confidence": 0.17
        },
        "warn_gap_risk_stops": {
          "value": 0.95,
          "confidence": 0.95
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "numbersBy": "code",
  "compare": {
    "holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding: this posts $24.97 of margin (0.25% of a nominal. $499.46 of SOL held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  }
}