thesis terminal

{
  "structure": "range LP + hedge",
  "title": "ETH/USDC range LP 2,442-2,807, delta-hedged",
  "legs": [
    {
      "kind": "lp",
      "coin": "ETH/USDC",
      "side": "deposit",
      "notionalUsd": 500,
      "range": {
        "low": 2442.27,
        "high": 2806.53
      },
      "note": "Concentrated band 2,442-2,807 (13.9% wide), from 2.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) over a weeks horizon. At 2,624 it mints 48.3% ETH and the rest USDC. Divergence-loss figures use the concentrated-range value function for this exact band (Uniswap-v3 geometry), not the full-range constant-product formula. fee APR 0.00% today, 95.20% 30-day mean total APY (fees and rewards), $256k TVL on ramses-cl-v2 (DefiLlama, today)."
    },
    {
      "kind": "perp",
      "coin": "ETH",
      "side": "short",
      "notionalUsd": 241.24,
      "qty": 0.0922,
      "leverage": 2,
      "marginMode": "cross",
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 2616.5
      },
      "hedgeOf": 0,
      "note": "Hedge: at 2,624 this band holds 48.3% of its value in ETH, so the short is that share of the LP notional, not a flat half. No stop - it is a hedge. The share moves with price: rebalance when price moves +/-3.5%."
    }
  ],
  "riskUsd": 620.62,
  "riskKind": "capital_deployed",
  "horizon": "weeks",
  "fundingPerDayUsd": 0.07,
  "warnings": [
    "The legs do not land at the same instant. Between the first fill and the last, the position is exposed to price in a way the thesis did not ask for.",
    "Concentrating liquidity into a narrow band multiplies divergence loss as well as fees. The figures here use the concentrated-range value function for this exact band, not the textbook full-range formula.",
    "Divergence loss in an LP is a real loss, not paper: if price leaves the band you are left holding the side that fell, and the fees may not cover it.",
    "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  ],
  "components": [
    {
      "type": "ticket_header",
      "props": {
        "title": "ETH/USDC range LP 2,442-2,807, delta-hedged",
        "structure": "range LP + hedge",
        "view": "range",
        "horizon": "weeks",
        "structureFit": 1
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "market_strip",
      "props": {
        "coin": "ETH",
        "mid": 2624.4,
        "atrPct1h": 0.5664,
        "fundingApr": 10.95,
        "ret24hPct": -0.14,
        "ret7dPct": 4.01,
        "rangePos48h": 0.8087,
        "betaToBtc30d": -0.0938
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 0,
        "kind": "lp",
        "coin": "ETH/USDC",
        "side": "deposit",
        "notionalUsd": 500,
        "entryType": "none",
        "note": "Concentrated band 2,442-2,807 (13.9% wide), from 2.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) over a weeks horizon. At 2,624 it mints 48.3% ETH and the rest USDC. Divergence-loss figures use the concentrated-range value function for this exact band (Uniswap-v3 geometry), not the full-range constant-product formula. fee APR 0.00% today, 95.20% 30-day mean total APY (fees and rewards), $256k TVL on ramses-cl-v2 (DefiLlama, today)."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 1,
        "kind": "perp",
        "coin": "ETH",
        "side": "short",
        "notionalUsd": 241.24,
        "qty": 0.0922,
        "leverage": 2,
        "marginMode": "cross",
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 2616.5,
        "note": "Hedge: at 2,624 this band holds 48.3% of its value in ETH, so the short is that share of the LP notional, not a flat half. No stop - it is a hedge. The share moves with price: rebalance when price moves +/-3.5%."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "range_box",
      "props": {
        "pair": "ETH/USDC",
        "low": 2442.27,
        "high": 2806.53,
        "mid": 2624.4,
        "widthPct": 13.88,
        "ilAtMinus10": -3.6426,
        "ilAtMinus20": -9.7703,
        "ilAtPlus10": -3.0351,
        "ilAtPlus20": -7.3055,
        "feeAprNote": "fee APR 0.00% today, 95.20% 30-day mean total APY (fees and rewards), $256k TVL on ramses-cl-v2 (DefiLlama, today)"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "yield_quote",
      "props": {
        "project": "ramses-cl-v2",
        "symbol": "USDC-UETH",
        "apy": 31.21,
        "tvlUsd": 256369,
        "url": "https://defillama.com/yields/pool/71b271fb-e462-40be-9fe7-e237e4308cf7",
        "note": "$500.00 here pays about $4.28 over 10 days at today's APY (not a promise; the rate moves). Of that, 0.00% is base yield and 31.21% is reward emissions, which stop when the programme does. LP yield is paid for taking divergence loss; the APY above is not a return on a held position."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "risk_box",
      "props": {
        "riskUsd": 620.62,
        "riskKind": "capital_deployed",
        "riskLabel": "capital deployed",
        "maxLossNote": "There is no stop on an LP. $500.00 is deployed; if ETH leaves the band you end up holding the side that fell, and the loss is real, not paper. The short hedge posts $120.62 of margin at 2x and earns or pays $0.07/day.",
        "fundingPerDayUsd": 0.07
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "compare_hold",
      "props": {
        "note": "Versus just holding the same basket this band mints: a 20% fall leaves the LP about -9.8% (-$48.85) behind holding and a 20% rise about -7.3% (-$36.53) behind. There is no stop here, so the number in the risk box is capital, not a loss: this deploys $620.62 (6.21% of a nominal. Those percentages are this band's own numbers, not the full-range approximation. Fees are what pay for that: fee APR 0.00% today, 95.20% 30-day mean total APY (fees and rewards), $256k TVL on ramses-cl-v2 (DefiLlama, today) - about $4.28 on $500.00 over 10 days at today's pool APY, before the divergence loss above. Those are the pool's own fees, never an estimate from the band width. Funding: $0.07/day. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "unhedged_window",
        "text": "The legs do not land at the same instant. Between the first fill and the last, the position is exposed to price in a way the thesis did not ask for.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "lp_concentrated_il",
        "text": "Concentrating liquidity into a narrow band multiplies divergence loss as well as fees. The figures here use the concentrated-range value function for this exact band, not the textbook full-range formula.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "il_is_real_loss",
        "text": "Divergence loss in an LP is a real loss, not paper: if price leaves the band you are left holding the side that fell, and the fees may not cover it.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "nominal_account_assumed",
        "text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "ETH",
        "url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/ETH"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "ETH/USDC pool on ramses-cl-v2",
        "url": "https://defillama.com/yields/pool/71b271fb-e462-40be-9fe7-e237e4308cf7"
      }
    }
  ],
  "market": {
    "ETH": {
      "coin": "ETH",
      "mid": 2624.4,
      "markPx": 2624.4,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 2832890051.735999,
      "vol24hUsd": 966926459.2534102,
      "maxLeverage": 25,
      "szDecimals": 4,
      "atrPct1h": 0.5664490386131279,
      "ret24hPct": -0.1369863013698569,
      "ret7dPct": 4.010779961953093,
      "rangePos48h": 0.8087478559176675,
      "hi30d": 2669,
      "lo30d": 2224,
      "betaToBtc30d": -0.09380275988691975,
      "asOf": 1789857346818,
      "dex": null
    },
    "BTC": {
      "coin": "BTC",
      "mid": 81156,
      "markPx": 81156,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 3439081697.45304,
      "vol24hUsd": 1361234153.9911103,
      "maxLeverage": 40,
      "szDecimals": 5,
      "atrPct1h": 0.3408572590884996,
      "ret24hPct": -0.1279842480925386,
      "ret7dPct": 5.099847185889295,
      "rangePos48h": 0.8548219840995507,
      "hi30d": 82268,
      "lo30d": 68898,
      "betaToBtc30d": 1,
      "asOf": 1789857346818,
      "dex": null
    }
  },
  "reader": {
    "structureConfidence": 1,
    "alternatives": [
      {
        "structure": "range LP + hedge",
        "p": 1
      },
      {
        "structure": "range LP",
        "p": 0
      }
    ],
    "trace": {
      "ms": 275,
      "input_tokens": 1135,
      "answers": {
        "structure": {
          "value": "range_lp_hedged",
          "confidence": 1,
          "probabilities": {
            "range_lp_hedged": 1,
            "range_lp": 0
          }
        },
        "warn_crowded_long": {
          "value": 0.27,
          "confidence": 0.27
        },
        "warn_near_30d_high": {
          "value": 0.33,
          "confidence": 0.33
        },
        "warn_gap_risk_stops": {
          "value": 0.31,
          "confidence": 0.31
        },
        "warn_unhedged_window": {
          "value": 0.76,
          "confidence": 0.76
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "numbersBy": "code",
  "compare": {
    "holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding the same basket this band mints: a 20% fall leaves the LP about -9.8% (-$48.85) behind holding and a 20% rise about -7.3% (-$36.53) behind. There is no stop here, so the number in the risk box is capital, not a loss: this deploys $620.62 (6.21% of a nominal. Those percentages are this band's own numbers, not the full-range approximation. Fees are what pay for that: fee APR 0.00% today, 95.20% 30-day mean total APY (fees and rewards), $256k TVL on ramses-cl-v2 (DefiLlama, today) - about $4.28 on $500.00 over 10 days at today's pool APY, before the divergence loss above. Those are the pool's own fees, never an estimate from the band width. Funding: $0.07/day. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  }
}