thesis terminal

{
  "structure": "loan into a hedged LP",
  "title": "ETH collateral, $1,550 loan, hedged - no ETH/USDC pool deep enough to LP",
  "legs": [
    {
      "kind": "spot",
      "coin": "ETH",
      "side": "buy",
      "notionalUsd": 5000,
      "qty": 1.9373,
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 2580.8
      },
      "note": "Collateral: 1.9373 ETH ($5,000 at 2,581), assumed - no wallet is attached, so this is 50.0% of the nominal $10,000 book. It is pledged, not sold: the loan below is drawn against it."
    },
    {
      "kind": "borrow",
      "coin": "USDC",
      "side": "borrow",
      "notionalUsd": 1550,
      "carryPerDayUsd": -0.29,
      "loan": {
        "venue": "hyperlend-pooled",
        "borrowApy": 6.74,
        "ltvMax": 0.62,
        "ltvUsed": 0.31,
        "thresholdPct": 0.62,
        "thresholdIsLtv": true,
        "liqPx": 1290.4,
        "collateralCoin": "ETH",
        "collateralUsd": 5000,
        "collateralPx": 2580.8,
        "costPerDayUsd": 0.29,
        "rateAsOf": 1789896948378
      },
      "note": "$1,550 of USDC borrowed on hyperlend-pooled against $5,000 of ETH: 31.0% loan-to-value, which is 50.0% of the 62.0% maximum the pool publishes. 6.74% borrow APR on hyperlend-pooled, $20.5M supplied, 62% maximum loan-to-value (rate as published by DefiLlama, 0 min old). $21.7M of USDC in it is unborrowed. Interest is $0.29 a day on this principal. Liquidation at 1,290 (50.0% below 2,581): DefiLlama publishes no separate liquidation threshold for this pool, so the pool's own 62.0% maximum loan-to-value is used as one, and that is an assumption this ticket is making out loud."
    },
    {
      "kind": "perp",
      "coin": "ETH",
      "side": "short",
      "notionalUsd": 4999.79,
      "qty": 1.9431,
      "leverage": 2,
      "marginMode": "cross",
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 2573.1
      },
      "hedgeOf": 0,
      "carryPerDayUsd": 1.5,
      "note": "Hedge: with no liquidity leg on this ticket, the only ETH delta here is the collateral, so the short is sized to it - $5,000 at 2x. No stop: it is a hedge, not a bet. The collateral is still what the loan is secured against, so hedging it does not remove the liquidation price above."
    }
  ],
  "riskUsd": 7499.9,
  "riskKind": "capital_deployed",
  "horizon": "months",
  "fundingPerDayUsd": 1.5,
  "warnings": [
    "The legs do not land at the same instant. Between the first fill and the last, the position is exposed to price in a way the thesis did not ask for.",
    "No wallet is attached, so the collateral on this ticket is an assumption: a nominal holding of the asset, sized by code, not a balance anybody read. Connect a wallet and the same structure is sized against what is actually there. This ticket pledges $5,000 of ETH (1.9373 at 2,581), which is 50.0% of the nominal $10,000 book.",
    "This position is funded by a loan, and the loan charges interest every day it is open. The figure is on the ticket, under borrow cost / day, at the rate the lender publishes today - that rate is variable and the lender changes it. On $1,550 at 6.74% that is $0.29 a day (rate as published by DefiLlama, 0 min old).",
    "A loan can be closed for you. If the collateral falls to the liquidation price on the ticket, the lender sells it to repay the loan - the position ends there, at that price, whatever the thesis was. ETH is 2,581 and the liquidation price is 1,290, 50.0% below it.",
    "The pool for this pair is too small to take this position, so no liquidity leg was built. The ticket names the pool, what is in it, and the size it could have taken. The deepest ETH/USDC pool on DefiLlama is ramses-cl-v2 at $253k TVL, under the $1.0M floor this terminal keeps before it puts a borrowed position into a pool; at 1.0% of TVL it could take about $2,533, and the loan on this ticket is $1,550.",
    "The short that flattens this position is a perpetual, so it pays or receives funding every hour it is open, and the share of the band held in the asset moves as price moves - the hedge is exact only at the price it was sized at. This one is $5,000 short ETH at 2x, $2,500 of margin, $1.50/day at today's funding.",
    "Spot BTC, ETH and SOL on Hyperliquid are Unit-bridged tokens (UBTC, UETH, USOL), not the native asset: the bridge is an extra counterparty.",
    "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
    "Part of what you typed was not used as written. you asked for 2x, and a loan drawn at 50.0% of hyperlend-pooled's 62.0% maximum loan-to-value is 1.31x of the collateral, so the ticket is sized at what the pool allows.",
    "Part of this sentence is not on this ticket: the LP leg. This ticket plots a spot buy of ETH, a USDC loan against ETH and a short ETH perp; that part has no leg this terminal can size from live data today, so it was left off rather than guessed."
  ],
  "components": [
    {
      "type": "ticket_header",
      "props": {
        "title": "ETH collateral, $1,550 loan, hedged - no ETH/USDC pool deep enough to LP",
        "structure": "loan into a hedged LP",
        "view": "range",
        "horizon": "months",
        "structureFit": null
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "market_strip",
      "props": {
        "coin": "ETH",
        "mid": 2580.8,
        "atrPct1h": 0.6252,
        "fundingApr": 10.95,
        "ret24hPct": -2.51,
        "ret7dPct": 3.5,
        "rangePos48h": 0.4948,
        "betaToBtc30d": -0.1844
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 0,
        "kind": "spot",
        "coin": "ETH",
        "side": "buy",
        "notionalUsd": 5000,
        "qty": 1.9373,
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 2580.8,
        "note": "Collateral: 1.9373 ETH ($5,000 at 2,581), assumed - no wallet is attached, so this is 50.0% of the nominal $10,000 book. It is pledged, not sold: the loan below is drawn against it."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 1,
        "kind": "borrow",
        "coin": "USDC",
        "side": "borrow",
        "notionalUsd": 1550,
        "entryType": "none",
        "loan": {
          "venue": "hyperlend-pooled",
          "borrowApy": 6.74,
          "ltvMax": 0.62,
          "ltvUsed": 0.31,
          "thresholdPct": 0.62,
          "thresholdIsLtv": true,
          "liqPx": 1290.4,
          "collateralCoin": "ETH",
          "collateralUsd": 5000,
          "collateralPx": 2580.8,
          "costPerDayUsd": 0.29,
          "rateAsOf": 1789896948378
        },
        "carryPerDayUsd": -0.29,
        "note": "$1,550 of USDC borrowed on hyperlend-pooled against $5,000 of ETH: 31.0% loan-to-value, which is 50.0% of the 62.0% maximum the pool publishes. 6.74% borrow APR on hyperlend-pooled, $20.5M supplied, 62% maximum loan-to-value (rate as published by DefiLlama, 0 min old). $21.7M of USDC in it is unborrowed. Interest is $0.29 a day on this principal. Liquidation at 1,290 (50.0% below 2,581): DefiLlama publishes no separate liquidation threshold for this pool, so the pool's own 62.0% maximum loan-to-value is used as one, and that is an assumption this ticket is making out loud."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 2,
        "kind": "perp",
        "coin": "ETH",
        "side": "short",
        "notionalUsd": 4999.79,
        "qty": 1.9431,
        "leverage": 2,
        "marginMode": "cross",
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 2573.1,
        "carryPerDayUsd": 1.5,
        "note": "Hedge: with no liquidity leg on this ticket, the only ETH delta here is the collateral, so the short is sized to it - $5,000 at 2x. No stop: it is a hedge, not a bet. The collateral is still what the loan is secured against, so hedging it does not remove the liquidation price above."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "yield_quote",
      "props": {
        "project": "ramses-cl-v2",
        "symbol": "USDC-UETH",
        "apy": 36.53,
        "tvlUsd": 253297,
        "url": "https://defillama.com/yields/pool/71b271fb-e462-40be-9fe7-e237e4308cf7",
        "note": "$0.00 here pays about $0.00 over 30 days at today's APY (not a promise; the rate moves). Of that, 0.00% is base yield and 36.53% is reward emissions, which stop when the programme does. LP yield is paid for taking divergence loss; the APY above is not a return on a held position."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "risk_box",
      "props": {
        "riskUsd": 7499.9,
        "riskKind": "capital_deployed",
        "riskLabel": "capital deployed",
        "maxLossNote": "There is no stop here. $5,000 of ETH is pledged and $1,550 is owed against it; if ETH falls to 1,290 (50.0% below 2,581) the lender sells the collateral to repay the loan and the position ends there. The short hedge posts $2,500 of margin at 2x. Interest runs at $0.29 a day whatever price does.",
        "fundingPerDayUsd": 1.5
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "compare_hold",
      "props": {
        "note": "Versus just holding the ETH: this ticket keeps it and borrows against it, and adds three things holding does not have - $0.29 a day of interest, a forced exit at 1,290, and $1.50/day of funding on the hedge. The figure in the risk box is capital, not a loss: this deploys $7,500 (75.00% of a nominal. There is no liquidity leg on this ticket, so it earns no fees: the deepest ETH/USDC pool on DefiLlama is ramses-cl-v2 at $253k TVL, under the $1.0M floor this terminal keeps before it puts a borrowed position into a pool; at 1.0% of TVL it could take about $2,533, and the loan on this ticket is $1,550. Net carry at today's published rates: $1.21/day. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "unhedged_window",
        "text": "The legs do not land at the same instant. Between the first fill and the last, the position is exposed to price in a way the thesis did not ask for.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "assumed_collateral",
        "text": "No wallet is attached, so the collateral on this ticket is an assumption: a nominal holding of the asset, sized by code, not a balance anybody read. Connect a wallet and the same structure is sized against what is actually there. This ticket pledges $5,000 of ETH (1.9373 at 2,581), which is 50.0% of the nominal $10,000 book.",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "borrow_cost_daily",
        "text": "This position is funded by a loan, and the loan charges interest every day it is open. The figure is on the ticket, under borrow cost / day, at the rate the lender publishes today - that rate is variable and the lender changes it. On $1,550 at 6.74% that is $0.29 a day (rate as published by DefiLlama, 0 min old).",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "liquidation_distance",
        "text": "A loan can be closed for you. If the collateral falls to the liquidation price on the ticket, the lender sells it to repay the loan - the position ends there, at that price, whatever the thesis was. ETH is 2,581 and the liquidation price is 1,290, 50.0% below it.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "lp_pool_too_thin",
        "text": "The pool for this pair is too small to take this position, so no liquidity leg was built. The ticket names the pool, what is in it, and the size it could have taken. The deepest ETH/USDC pool on DefiLlama is ramses-cl-v2 at $253k TVL, under the $1.0M floor this terminal keeps before it puts a borrowed position into a pool; at 1.0% of TVL it could take about $2,533, and the loan on this ticket is $1,550.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "hedge_funding_cost",
        "text": "The short that flattens this position is a perpetual, so it pays or receives funding every hour it is open, and the share of the band held in the asset moves as price moves - the hedge is exact only at the price it was sized at. This one is $5,000 short ETH at 2x, $2,500 of margin, $1.50/day at today's funding.",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "spot_is_unit_bridged",
        "text": "Spot BTC, ETH and SOL on Hyperliquid are Unit-bridged tokens (UBTC, UETH, USOL), not the native asset: the bridge is an extra counterparty.",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "nominal_account_assumed",
        "text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "levels_ignored",
        "text": "Part of what you typed was not used as written. you asked for 2x, and a loan drawn at 50.0% of hyperlend-pooled's 62.0% maximum loan-to-value is 1.31x of the collateral, so the ticket is sized at what the pool allows.",
        "severity": "stop"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "not_plotted",
        "text": "Part of this sentence is not on this ticket: the LP leg. This ticket plots a spot buy of ETH, a USDC loan against ETH and a short ETH perp; that part has no leg this terminal can size from live data today, so it was left off rather than guessed.",
        "severity": "stop"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "ETH",
        "url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/ETH"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "what was not plotted, and how to ask for it",
        "url": "https://think.ascendants.io/cant?session=cb85ae28f5d34b60bed678ae"
      }
    }
  ],
  "market": {
    "ETH": {
      "coin": "ETH",
      "mid": 2580.8,
      "markPx": 2580.8,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 2671948470.38656,
      "vol24hUsd": 983872054.8934001,
      "maxLeverage": 25,
      "szDecimals": 4,
      "atrPct1h": 0.625208125208127,
      "ret24hPct": -2.511993351716846,
      "ret7dPct": 3.501102867455397,
      "rangePos48h": 0.49484536082474306,
      "hi30d": 2669,
      "lo30d": 2255.5,
      "betaToBtc30d": -0.18438130550427537,
      "asOf": 1789896957264,
      "dex": null
    },
    "BTC": {
      "coin": "BTC",
      "mid": 80512,
      "markPx": 80512,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 3273112349.7267203,
      "vol24hUsd": 1457569356.9388998,
      "maxLeverage": 40,
      "szDecimals": 5,
      "atrPct1h": 0.38002818846408465,
      "ret24hPct": -1.0434974988016377,
      "ret7dPct": 4.882497003803876,
      "rangePos48h": 0.6286286286286287,
      "hi30d": 82268,
      "lo30d": 71134,
      "betaToBtc30d": 1,
      "asOf": 1789896957264,
      "dex": null
    }
  },
  "reader": {
    "structureConfidence": -1,
    "alternatives": [],
    "trace": {
      "ms": 705,
      "input_tokens": 792,
      "answers": {
        "warn_crowded_long": {
          "value": 0.13,
          "confidence": 0.13
        },
        "warn_gap_risk_stops": {
          "value": 0.41,
          "confidence": 0.41
        },
        "warn_unhedged_window": {
          "value": 0.79,
          "confidence": 0.79
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "numbersBy": "code",
  "compare": {
    "holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding the ETH: this ticket keeps it and borrows against it, and adds three things holding does not have - $0.29 a day of interest, a forced exit at 1,290, and $1.50/day of funding on the hedge. The figure in the risk box is capital, not a loss: this deploys $7,500 (75.00% of a nominal. There is no liquidity leg on this ticket, so it earns no fees: the deepest ETH/USDC pool on DefiLlama is ramses-cl-v2 at $253k TVL, under the $1.0M floor this terminal keeps before it puts a borrowed position into a pool; at 1.0% of TVL it could take about $2,533, and the loan on this ticket is $1,550. Net carry at today's published rates: $1.21/day. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  },
  "unsupported": [
    {
      "id": "lp_leg",
      "words": "the LP leg",
      "reason": "the deepest ETH/USDC pool on DefiLlama is ramses-cl-v2 at $253k TVL, under the $1.0M floor this terminal keeps before it puts a borrowed position into a pool; at 1.0% of TVL it could take about $2,533, and the loan on this ticket is $1,550.",
      "nearest": "the same structure on a pair whose pool is deep enough - 'borrow USDC against my HYPE and farm the HYPE/USDC pool, hedged'"
    }
  ]
}