thesis terminal

one thesis, the ticket code priced for it, and what happened next

the sentence2026-09-21 11:14Z
SOL runs into the weekend, I want to be long but I can't watch it, keep the risk small
Ticketlong swing

Long SOL swing, days, small risk

longSOLlong swingdirectionaldays-$50 / +$75structure: code
metricvalue
max loss$49.91
deployable / total$10,000 (nominal)
funding / day-$0.18
loss at stop$49.93
gap through stop$74.90
best case+$74.90 1.50R
worst case-$49.93 -1.00R
R:R at tp1 / tp21.00 / 2.00
structure fitcode
Proposed transactions
1longSOLperp$540.974.63 @ 116.841x cross
notional
$540.97
qty
4.63
entry
116.84 market
stop
106.06 +9.23%
tp 1
127.62 +9.23% · ½
tp 2
138.41 +18.46% · ½
lev
1x cross
funding/d
-$0.18
liq px
This asset right now
mid116.49
24h+7.83%
7d+14.49%
atr 1h1.26%
range 48h95.69%
funding apr+11.81%longs pay
open interest$707.8M
the steps
no plan was made for this thesis — the ticket was priced on its own
Warnings & versus holding
3top of rangegap riskno wallet
hold at tp1+$49.939.23% move
ticket at tp1+$24.9750.00% of size
delta-$24.97ticket − hold
raw JSON
{
  "structure": "swing",
  "title": "Long SOL swing, days, small risk",
  "legs": [
    {
      "kind": "perp",
      "coin": "SOL",
      "side": "long",
      "notionalUsd": 540.97,
      "qty": 4.63,
      "leverage": 1,
      "marginMode": "cross",
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 116.84
      },
      "stop": {
        "px": 106.06,
        "pct": 9.23
      },
      "takeProfits": [
        {
          "px": 127.62,
          "pct": 9.23,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        },
        {
          "px": 138.41,
          "pct": 18.46,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        }
      ],
      "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (9.2% from the 117 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
    }
  ],
  "riskUsd": 49.91,
  "riskKind": "max_loss",
  "horizon": "days",
  "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.18,
  "warnings": [
    "Price is at the top of its 30-day range. Buying here is buying strength - the stop is far from the nearest support.",
    "A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
    "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  ],
  "components": [
    {
      "type": "ticket_header",
      "props": {
        "title": "Long SOL swing, days, small risk",
        "structure": "swing",
        "view": "directional",
        "horizon": "days",
        "structureFit": null
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "market_strip",
      "props": {
        "coin": "SOL",
        "mid": 116.49,
        "atrPct1h": 1.2566,
        "fundingApr": 11.81,
        "ret24hPct": 7.83,
        "ret7dPct": 14.49,
        "rangePos48h": 0.9569,
        "betaToBtc30d": -0.1559
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 0,
        "kind": "perp",
        "coin": "SOL",
        "side": "long",
        "notionalUsd": 540.97,
        "qty": 4.63,
        "leverage": 1,
        "marginMode": "cross",
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 116.84,
        "stopPx": 106.06,
        "stopPct": 9.23,
        "takeProfits": [
          {
            "px": 127.62,
            "pct": 9.23,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          },
          {
            "px": 138.41,
            "pct": 18.46,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          }
        ],
        "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (9.2% from the 117 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "risk_box",
      "props": {
        "riskUsd": 49.91,
        "riskKind": "max_loss",
        "riskLabel": "max loss",
        "maxLossNote": "The stop at 106 is 9.2% from the 117 entry and costs about $49.91 if it fills (4.63 x the 117-106 gap). Cross margin at 1x posts $540.97; a gap through the stop can cost more than the stop.",
        "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.18
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "compare_hold",
      "props": {
        "note": "Versus just holding: this risks $49.91 (0.50% of a nominal. $540.97 of SOL held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "near_30d_high",
        "text": "Price is at the top of its 30-day range. Buying here is buying strength - the stop is far from the nearest support.",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "gap_risk_stops",
        "text": "A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "nominal_account_assumed",
        "text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "SOL",
        "url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/SOL"
      }
    }
  ],
  "market": {
    "SOL": {
      "coin": "SOL",
      "mid": 116.49,
      "markPx": 116.49,
      "fundingApr": 11.8090932,
      "oiUsd": 707802093.2399994,
      "vol24hUsd": 353585555.2233003,
      "maxLeverage": 20,
      "szDecimals": 2,
      "atrPct1h": 1.256630850841243,
      "ret24hPct": 7.8311580116634305,
      "ret7dPct": 14.486486486486472,
      "rangePos48h": 0.95688748685594,
      "hi30d": 116.9,
      "lo30d": 87.688,
      "betaToBtc30d": -0.1559113062988161,
      "asOf": 1789989287236,
      "dex": null
    },
    "BTC": {
      "coin": "BTC",
      "mid": 84643,
      "markPx": 84643,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 3606538950.5324316,
      "vol24hUsd": 3200772255.6443715,
      "maxLeverage": 40,
      "szDecimals": 5,
      "atrPct1h": 0.9031091780446643,
      "ret24hPct": 5.340252887295893,
      "ret7dPct": 8.70201754273312,
      "rangePos48h": 0.8398729446935725,
      "hi30d": 85500,
      "lo30d": 74903,
      "betaToBtc30d": 1,
      "asOf": 1789989287236,
      "dex": null
    }
  },
  "reader": {
    "structureConfidence": -1,
    "alternatives": [],
    "trace": {
      "ms": 266,
      "input_tokens": 703,
      "answers": {
        "warn_near_30d_high": {
          "value": 0.88,
          "confidence": 0.88
        },
        "warn_gap_risk_stops": {
          "value": 0.94,
          "confidence": 0.94
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "numbersBy": "code",
  "compare": {
    "holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding: this risks $49.91 (0.50% of a nominal. $540.97 of SOL held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  }
}
Stats
atr 1d6.16%
vs 30d high-0.35%116.9
vs 30d low+32.85%87.688
beta btc-0.16
vol 24h$353.59M
vol / oi0.50
the check
the reader has not checked a plan for this thesis
outcomes2 of 3 rungs
4h2026-09-21 11:14Z → 2026-09-21 15:14Z/ledger/162
SOL116.47 → 118.66
ticket p&l+$9.65of risk+19.33%hold the same net exposure+$10.17versus hold-$0.52fees-$0.49funding-$0.03
#legsidenotionalentryexitp&lclosed
0SOL perplong$540.97116.47118.66+$9.68time
entry basis: SOL next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
1d2026-09-21 11:14Z → 2026-09-22 11:14Z/ledger/183
SOL116.47 → 116.99
ticket p&l+$1.75of risk+3.51%hold the same net exposure+$2.42versus hold-$0.67fees-$0.49funding-$0.18
#legsidenotionalentryexitp&lclosed
0SOL perplong$540.97116.47116.99+$1.93time
entry basis: SOL next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
7dprovisional2026-09-21 11:14Z → 2026-09-22 20:09Zunsigned
SOL116.47 → 118.06
ticket p&l+$6.62of risk+13.27%hold the same net exposure+$7.36versus hold-$0.74fees-$0.49funding-$0.25
#legsidenotionalentryexitp&lclosed
0SOL perplong$540.97116.47118.06+$6.87time
Provisional: the exit is the current mid after 32.92h, not the 7d deadline. Not stored, not signed, and it moves with the market.
entry basis: SOL next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
Counts are small and the sample is one regime; this is a record, not a forecast.
receipts3 signed
  • thesis#1562026-09-21 11:14Z4eb11e9da229f6d00460ec20…raw
  • resolution#1622026-09-21 15:15Z9a68368ad02ca38b82cdfdc8…raw
  • resolution#1832026-09-22 11:17Z6d6059e74f48fc8580a4d9c8…raw