thesis terminal

{
  "structure": "swing",
  "title": "Long ETH swing, months, large risk",
  "legs": [
    {
      "kind": "perp",
      "coin": "ETH",
      "side": "long",
      "notionalUsd": 1644.68,
      "qty": 0.6373,
      "leverage": 1,
      "marginMode": "cross",
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 2580.7
      },
      "stop": {
        "px": 2266.9,
        "pct": 12.16
      },
      "takeProfits": [
        {
          "px": 2894.5,
          "pct": 12.16,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        },
        {
          "px": 3208.3,
          "pct": 24.32,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        }
      ],
      "note": "Stop is 4x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a months-long hold (12.2% from the 2,581 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
    }
  ],
  "riskUsd": 199.98,
  "riskKind": "max_loss",
  "horizon": "months",
  "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.49,
  "warnings": [
    "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
    "Part of this sentence is not on this ticket: the loan, the LP leg and the 2x. This ticket plots a long ETH perp; each of those has no leg this terminal can size from live data today, so it was left off rather than guessed."
  ],
  "components": [
    {
      "type": "ticket_header",
      "props": {
        "title": "Long ETH swing, months, large risk",
        "structure": "swing",
        "view": "directional",
        "horizon": "months",
        "structureFit": null
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "market_strip",
      "props": {
        "coin": "ETH",
        "mid": 2573,
        "atrPct1h": 0.6204,
        "fundingApr": 10.95,
        "ret24hPct": -2.11,
        "ret7dPct": 2.22,
        "rangePos48h": 0.4774,
        "betaToBtc30d": -0.2778
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 0,
        "kind": "perp",
        "coin": "ETH",
        "side": "long",
        "notionalUsd": 1644.68,
        "qty": 0.6373,
        "leverage": 1,
        "marginMode": "cross",
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 2580.7,
        "stopPx": 2266.9,
        "stopPct": 12.16,
        "takeProfits": [
          {
            "px": 2894.5,
            "pct": 12.16,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          },
          {
            "px": 3208.3,
            "pct": 24.32,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          }
        ],
        "note": "Stop is 4x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a months-long hold (12.2% from the 2,581 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "risk_box",
      "props": {
        "riskUsd": 199.98,
        "riskKind": "max_loss",
        "riskLabel": "max loss",
        "maxLossNote": "The stop at 2,267 is 12.2% from the 2,581 entry and costs about $199.98 if it fills (0.6373 x the 2,581-2,267 gap). Cross margin at 1x posts $1,645; a gap through the stop can cost more than the stop.",
        "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.49
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "compare_hold",
      "props": {
        "note": "Versus just holding: this risks $199.98 (2.00% of a nominal. $1,645 of ETH held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "nominal_account_assumed",
        "text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "not_plotted",
        "text": "Part of this sentence is not on this ticket: the loan, the LP leg and the 2x. This ticket plots a long ETH perp; each of those has no leg this terminal can size from live data today, so it was left off rather than guessed.",
        "severity": "stop"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "ETH",
        "url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/ETH"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "what was not plotted, and how to ask for it",
        "url": "https://think.ascendants.io/cant?session=bb778a9ab3734be19291ef92"
      }
    }
  ],
  "market": {
    "ETH": {
      "coin": "ETH",
      "mid": 2573,
      "markPx": 2573,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 2676410876.9399996,
      "vol24hUsd": 1018149809.4147998,
      "maxLeverage": 25,
      "szDecimals": 4,
      "atrPct1h": 0.6203584046500555,
      "ret24hPct": -2.111470420391859,
      "ret7dPct": 2.2167487684729092,
      "rangePos48h": 0.47740881872618346,
      "hi30d": 2669,
      "lo30d": 2250.7,
      "betaToBtc30d": -0.2777610982905232,
      "asOf": 1789894479320,
      "dex": null
    },
    "BTC": {
      "coin": "BTC",
      "mid": 80249,
      "markPx": 80249,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 3262979166.1168,
      "vol24hUsd": 1470223976.5570765,
      "maxLeverage": 40,
      "szDecimals": 5,
      "atrPct1h": 0.3740069608333082,
      "ret24hPct": -1.1115081761161272,
      "ret7dPct": 4.092406672373983,
      "rangePos48h": 0.5991280403854979,
      "hi30d": 82268,
      "lo30d": 69792,
      "betaToBtc30d": 1,
      "asOf": 1789894479320,
      "dex": null
    }
  },
  "reader": {
    "structureConfidence": -1,
    "alternatives": [],
    "trace": {
      "ms": 731,
      "input_tokens": 693,
      "answers": {
        "warn_crowded_long": {
          "value": 0.16,
          "confidence": 0.16
        },
        "warn_gap_risk_stops": {
          "value": 0.52,
          "confidence": 0.52
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "numbersBy": "code",
  "compare": {
    "holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding: this risks $199.98 (2.00% of a nominal. $1,645 of ETH held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  },
  "unsupported": [
    {
      "id": "loan_leg",
      "words": "the loan",
      "reason": "a loan has no leg here: no borrow rate, no loan-to-value and no liquidation level are wired, so it cannot be sized honestly.",
      "nearest": "the same structure funded from USDC you hold - 'LP ETH/USDC and hedge it with a short perp, stay flat'"
    },
    {
      "id": "lp_leg",
      "words": "the LP leg",
      "reason": "an LP leg is only built when the sentence reads as a range; this one read as a direction, so the position became a perp.",
      "nearest": "say the band: 'ETH chops between 2,300 and 2,900, LP it and stay flat'"
    },
    {
      "id": "leverage_multiple",
      "words": "the 2x",
      "reason": "the 2x was not read: leverage on a perp leg is derived by code from the notional and the account, and this leg runs at 1x.",
      "nearest": "say the risk instead: 'risk 200 bucks'"
    }
  ]
}