thesis terminal

{
  "structure": "loan into a hedged LP",
  "title": "HYPE loan into a hedged HYPE/USDC LP 81.94-105",
  "legs": [
    {
      "kind": "spot",
      "coin": "HYPE",
      "side": "buy",
      "notionalUsd": 5000,
      "qty": 53.37,
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 93.682
      },
      "note": "Collateral: 53.37 HYPE ($5,000 at 93.68), assumed - no wallet is attached, so this is 50.0% of the nominal $10,000 book. It is pledged, not sold: the loan below is drawn against it."
    },
    {
      "kind": "borrow",
      "coin": "USDC",
      "side": "borrow",
      "notionalUsd": 1550,
      "carryPerDayUsd": -0.2,
      "loan": {
        "venue": "hyperlend-pooled",
        "borrowApy": 4.71,
        "ltvMax": 0.62,
        "ltvUsed": 0.31,
        "thresholdPct": 0.62,
        "thresholdIsLtv": true,
        "liqPx": 46.841,
        "collateralCoin": "HYPE",
        "collateralUsd": 5000,
        "collateralPx": 93.682,
        "costPerDayUsd": 0.2,
        "rateAsOf": 1789941680500
      },
      "note": "$1,550 of USDC borrowed on hyperlend-pooled against $5,000 of HYPE: 31.0% loan-to-value, which is 50.0% of the 62.0% maximum the pool publishes. 4.71% borrow APR on hyperlend-pooled, $27.7M supplied, 62% maximum loan-to-value (rate as published by DefiLlama, 64 min old). $27.7M of USDC in it is unborrowed. Interest is $0.20 a day on this principal. Liquidation at 46.84 (50.0% below 93.68): DefiLlama publishes no separate liquidation threshold for this pool, so the pool's own 62.0% maximum loan-to-value is used as one, and that is an assumption this ticket is making out loud."
    },
    {
      "kind": "lp",
      "coin": "HYPE/USDC",
      "side": "deposit",
      "notionalUsd": 1550,
      "range": {
        "low": 81.94,
        "high": 105.42
      },
      "carryPerDayUsd": 2.32,
      "note": "The loan goes here: $1,550 into a 81.94-105 band (25.1% wide), from 2.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) over a weeks horizon. At 93.68 it mints 47.0% HYPE and the rest USDC, bought with part of the same loan. fee APR 54.59% today, 44.74% 30-day mean total APY (fees and rewards), $6.2M TVL on project-x (DefiLlama, today)."
    },
    {
      "kind": "perp",
      "coin": "HYPE",
      "side": "short",
      "notionalUsd": 727.59,
      "qty": 7.79,
      "leverage": 2,
      "marginMode": "cross",
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 93.401
      },
      "hedgeOf": 2,
      "carryPerDayUsd": 0.22,
      "note": "Hedge: at 93.68 the band holds 47.0% of its value in HYPE, so the short is that share of $1,550, not a flat half. No stop: it is a hedge. The share moves with price - rebalance when price moves +/-6.3%. The collateral above is deliberately NOT hedged: it is the bag the sentence asked to keep."
    }
  ],
  "riskUsd": 5363.8,
  "riskKind": "capital_deployed",
  "horizon": "weeks",
  "fundingPerDayUsd": 0.22,
  "warnings": [
    "The legs do not land at the same instant. Between the first fill and the last, the position is exposed to price in a way the thesis did not ask for.",
    "No wallet is attached, so the collateral on this ticket is an assumption: a nominal holding of the asset, sized by code, not a balance anybody read. Connect a wallet and the same structure is sized against what is actually there. This ticket pledges $5,000 of HYPE (53.37 at 93.68), which is 50.0% of the nominal $10,000 book.",
    "This position is funded by a loan, and the loan charges interest every day it is open. The figure is on the ticket, under borrow cost / day, at the rate the lender publishes today - that rate is variable and the lender changes it. On $1,550 at 4.71% that is $0.20 a day (rate as published by DefiLlama, 64 min old).",
    "A loan can be closed for you. If the collateral falls to the liquidation price on the ticket, the lender sells it to repay the loan - the position ends there, at that price, whatever the thesis was. HYPE is 93.68 and the liquidation price is 46.84, 50.0% below it.",
    "Concentrating liquidity into a narrow band multiplies divergence loss as well as fees. The figures here use the concentrated-range value function for this exact band, not the textbook full-range formula.",
    "The short that flattens this position is a perpetual, so it pays or receives funding every hour it is open, and the share of the band held in the asset moves as price moves - the hedge is exact only at the price it was sized at. This one is $727.59 short HYPE at 2x, $363.80 of margin, $0.22/day at today's funding.",
    "Divergence loss in an LP is a real loss, not paper: if price leaves the band you are left holding the side that fell, and the fees may not cover it.",
    "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  ],
  "components": [
    {
      "type": "ticket_header",
      "props": {
        "title": "HYPE loan into a hedged HYPE/USDC LP 81.94-105",
        "structure": "loan into a hedged LP",
        "view": "range",
        "horizon": "weeks",
        "structureFit": null
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "market_strip",
      "props": {
        "coin": "HYPE",
        "mid": 93.682,
        "atrPct1h": 1.0234,
        "fundingApr": 10.95,
        "ret24hPct": 2.3,
        "ret7dPct": 21,
        "rangePos48h": 0.8167,
        "betaToBtc30d": -0.0339
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 0,
        "kind": "spot",
        "coin": "HYPE",
        "side": "buy",
        "notionalUsd": 5000,
        "qty": 53.37,
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 93.682,
        "note": "Collateral: 53.37 HYPE ($5,000 at 93.68), assumed - no wallet is attached, so this is 50.0% of the nominal $10,000 book. It is pledged, not sold: the loan below is drawn against it."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 1,
        "kind": "borrow",
        "coin": "USDC",
        "side": "borrow",
        "notionalUsd": 1550,
        "entryType": "none",
        "loan": {
          "venue": "hyperlend-pooled",
          "borrowApy": 4.71,
          "ltvMax": 0.62,
          "ltvUsed": 0.31,
          "thresholdPct": 0.62,
          "thresholdIsLtv": true,
          "liqPx": 46.841,
          "collateralCoin": "HYPE",
          "collateralUsd": 5000,
          "collateralPx": 93.682,
          "costPerDayUsd": 0.2,
          "rateAsOf": 1789941680500
        },
        "carryPerDayUsd": -0.2,
        "note": "$1,550 of USDC borrowed on hyperlend-pooled against $5,000 of HYPE: 31.0% loan-to-value, which is 50.0% of the 62.0% maximum the pool publishes. 4.71% borrow APR on hyperlend-pooled, $27.7M supplied, 62% maximum loan-to-value (rate as published by DefiLlama, 64 min old). $27.7M of USDC in it is unborrowed. Interest is $0.20 a day on this principal. Liquidation at 46.84 (50.0% below 93.68): DefiLlama publishes no separate liquidation threshold for this pool, so the pool's own 62.0% maximum loan-to-value is used as one, and that is an assumption this ticket is making out loud."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 2,
        "kind": "lp",
        "coin": "HYPE/USDC",
        "side": "deposit",
        "notionalUsd": 1550,
        "entryType": "none",
        "carryPerDayUsd": 2.32,
        "note": "The loan goes here: $1,550 into a 81.94-105 band (25.1% wide), from 2.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) over a weeks horizon. At 93.68 it mints 47.0% HYPE and the rest USDC, bought with part of the same loan. fee APR 54.59% today, 44.74% 30-day mean total APY (fees and rewards), $6.2M TVL on project-x (DefiLlama, today)."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 3,
        "kind": "perp",
        "coin": "HYPE",
        "side": "short",
        "notionalUsd": 727.59,
        "qty": 7.79,
        "leverage": 2,
        "marginMode": "cross",
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 93.401,
        "carryPerDayUsd": 0.22,
        "note": "Hedge: at 93.68 the band holds 47.0% of its value in HYPE, so the short is that share of $1,550, not a flat half. No stop: it is a hedge. The share moves with price - rebalance when price moves +/-6.3%. The collateral above is deliberately NOT hedged: it is the bag the sentence asked to keep."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "range_box",
      "props": {
        "pair": "HYPE/USDC",
        "low": 81.94,
        "high": 105.42,
        "mid": 93.682,
        "widthPct": 25.06,
        "ilAtMinus10": -2.2633,
        "ilAtMinus20": -8.4662,
        "ilAtPlus10": -1.8639,
        "ilAtPlus20": -5.9742,
        "feeAprNote": "fee APR 54.59% today, 44.74% 30-day mean total APY (fees and rewards), $6.2M TVL on project-x (DefiLlama, today)",
        "tvlUsd": 6227909,
        "project": "project-x"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "yield_quote",
      "props": {
        "project": "project-x",
        "symbol": "WHYPE-USDC",
        "apy": 54.59,
        "tvlUsd": 6227909,
        "url": "https://defillama.com/yields/pool/86eb8c44-6acd-4049-a434-6a6f82e81477",
        "note": "$1,550 here pays about $23.18 over 10 days at today's APY (not a promise; the rate moves). Of that, 54.59% is base yield and none reported is reward emissions, which stop when the programme does. LP yield is paid for taking divergence loss; the APY above is not a return on a held position."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "risk_box",
      "props": {
        "riskUsd": 5363.8,
        "riskKind": "capital_deployed",
        "riskLabel": "capital deployed",
        "maxLossNote": "There is no stop here. $5,000 of HYPE is pledged and $1,550 is owed against it; if HYPE falls to 46.84 (50.0% below 93.68) the lender sells the collateral to repay the loan and the position ends there. The short hedge posts $363.80 of margin at 2x. Interest runs at $0.20 a day whatever price does.",
        "fundingPerDayUsd": 0.22
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "compare_hold",
      "props": {
        "note": "Versus just holding the HYPE: this ticket keeps it and puts the loan to work, and adds three things holding does not have - $0.20 a day of interest, a forced exit at 46.84, and $0.22/day of funding on the hedge. Against holding the same basket the band mints, a 20% fall leaves the LP about -8.5% behind and a 20% rise about -6.0% behind. The figure in the risk box is capital, not a loss: this deploys $5,364 (53.64% of a nominal. Fees are what the loan is being put to work for: fee APR 54.59% today, 44.74% 30-day mean total APY (fees and rewards), $6.2M TVL on project-x (DefiLlama, today) - about $23.18 on $1,550 over 10 days at the pool's own fee APR, before divergence loss and before the $2.00 of interest over the same 10 days. Net carry at today's published rates: $2.34/day. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "unhedged_window",
        "text": "The legs do not land at the same instant. Between the first fill and the last, the position is exposed to price in a way the thesis did not ask for.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "assumed_collateral",
        "text": "No wallet is attached, so the collateral on this ticket is an assumption: a nominal holding of the asset, sized by code, not a balance anybody read. Connect a wallet and the same structure is sized against what is actually there. This ticket pledges $5,000 of HYPE (53.37 at 93.68), which is 50.0% of the nominal $10,000 book.",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "borrow_cost_daily",
        "text": "This position is funded by a loan, and the loan charges interest every day it is open. The figure is on the ticket, under borrow cost / day, at the rate the lender publishes today - that rate is variable and the lender changes it. On $1,550 at 4.71% that is $0.20 a day (rate as published by DefiLlama, 64 min old).",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "liquidation_distance",
        "text": "A loan can be closed for you. If the collateral falls to the liquidation price on the ticket, the lender sells it to repay the loan - the position ends there, at that price, whatever the thesis was. HYPE is 93.68 and the liquidation price is 46.84, 50.0% below it.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "lp_concentrated_il",
        "text": "Concentrating liquidity into a narrow band multiplies divergence loss as well as fees. The figures here use the concentrated-range value function for this exact band, not the textbook full-range formula.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "hedge_funding_cost",
        "text": "The short that flattens this position is a perpetual, so it pays or receives funding every hour it is open, and the share of the band held in the asset moves as price moves - the hedge is exact only at the price it was sized at. This one is $727.59 short HYPE at 2x, $363.80 of margin, $0.22/day at today's funding.",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "il_is_real_loss",
        "text": "Divergence loss in an LP is a real loss, not paper: if price leaves the band you are left holding the side that fell, and the fees may not cover it.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "nominal_account_assumed",
        "text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "HYPE",
        "url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/HYPE"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "HYPE/USDC pool on project-x",
        "url": "https://defillama.com/yields/pool/86eb8c44-6acd-4049-a434-6a6f82e81477"
      }
    }
  ],
  "market": {
    "HYPE": {
      "coin": "HYPE",
      "mid": 93.682,
      "markPx": 93.682,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 2029074219.6697202,
      "vol24hUsd": 387305648.3951401,
      "maxLeverage": 10,
      "szDecimals": 2,
      "atrPct1h": 1.0234291799787023,
      "ret24hPct": 2.3019634394042088,
      "ret7dPct": 21.000219572995114,
      "rangePos48h": 0.816673330667733,
      "hi30d": 94.599,
      "lo30d": 71.15,
      "betaToBtc30d": -0.033923470939630336,
      "asOf": 1789945531729,
      "dex": null
    },
    "BTC": {
      "coin": "BTC",
      "mid": 81185,
      "markPx": 81185,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 3484558592.9726,
      "vol24hUsd": 1539697163.0054398,
      "maxLeverage": 40,
      "szDecimals": 5,
      "atrPct1h": 0.42156929962888534,
      "ret24hPct": -0.12548131927614392,
      "ret7dPct": 5.851597846069589,
      "rangePos48h": 0.5611471861471862,
      "hi30d": 82268,
      "lo30d": 72632,
      "betaToBtc30d": 1,
      "asOf": 1789945531729,
      "dex": null
    }
  },
  "reader": {
    "structureConfidence": -1,
    "alternatives": [],
    "trace": {
      "ms": 380,
      "input_tokens": 875,
      "answers": {
        "warn_crowded_long": {
          "value": 0.33,
          "confidence": 0.33
        },
        "warn_near_30d_high": {
          "value": 0.52,
          "confidence": 0.52
        },
        "warn_gap_risk_stops": {
          "value": 0.39,
          "confidence": 0.39
        },
        "warn_unhedged_window": {
          "value": 0.76,
          "confidence": 0.76
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "numbersBy": "code",
  "compare": {
    "holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding the HYPE: this ticket keeps it and puts the loan to work, and adds three things holding does not have - $0.20 a day of interest, a forced exit at 46.84, and $0.22/day of funding on the hedge. Against holding the same basket the band mints, a 20% fall leaves the LP about -8.5% behind and a 20% rise about -6.0% behind. The figure in the risk box is capital, not a loss: this deploys $5,364 (53.64% of a nominal. Fees are what the loan is being put to work for: fee APR 54.59% today, 44.74% 30-day mean total APY (fees and rewards), $6.2M TVL on project-x (DefiLlama, today) - about $23.18 on $1,550 over 10 days at the pool's own fee APR, before divergence loss and before the $2.00 of interest over the same 10 days. Net carry at today's published rates: $2.34/day. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  }
}