thesis terminal

one thesis, the ticket code priced for it, and what happened next

the sentence2026-09-20 06:09Z
SOL runs into the weekend, I want to be long but I can't watch it, keep the risk small
Ticketlong swing

Long SOL swing, days, small risk

longSOLlong swingdirectionaldays-$50 / +$75structure: code
metricvalue
max loss$49.99
deployable / total$10,000 (nominal)
funding / day-$0.22
loss at stop$50.00
gap through stop$75.00
best case+$75.00 1.50R
worst case-$50.00 -1.00R
R:R at tp1 / tp21.00 / 2.00
structure fitcode
Proposed transactions
1longSOLperp$722.546.63 @ 108.981x cross
notional
$722.54
qty
6.63
entry
108.98 market
stop
101.44 +6.92%
tp 1
116.52 +6.92% · ½
tp 2
124.06 +13.84% · ½
lev
1x cross
funding/d
-$0.22
liq px
This asset right now
mid108.65
24h-2.96%
7d+6.77%
atr 1h0.94%
range 48h36.95%
funding apr+10.95%longs pay
open interest$631.21M
the steps
no plan was made for this thesis — the ticket was priced on its own
Warnings & versus holding
2gap riskno wallet
hold at tp1+$50.006.92% move
ticket at tp1+$25.0050.00% of size
delta-$25.00ticket − hold
raw JSON
{
  "structure": "swing",
  "title": "Long SOL swing, days, small risk",
  "legs": [
    {
      "kind": "perp",
      "coin": "SOL",
      "side": "long",
      "notionalUsd": 722.54,
      "qty": 6.63,
      "leverage": 1,
      "marginMode": "cross",
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 108.98
      },
      "stop": {
        "px": 101.44,
        "pct": 6.92
      },
      "takeProfits": [
        {
          "px": 116.52,
          "pct": 6.92,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        },
        {
          "px": 124.06,
          "pct": 13.84,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        }
      ],
      "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (6.9% from the 109 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
    }
  ],
  "riskUsd": 49.99,
  "riskKind": "max_loss",
  "horizon": "days",
  "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.22,
  "warnings": [
    "A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
    "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  ],
  "components": [
    {
      "type": "ticket_header",
      "props": {
        "title": "Long SOL swing, days, small risk",
        "structure": "swing",
        "view": "directional",
        "horizon": "days",
        "structureFit": null
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "market_strip",
      "props": {
        "coin": "SOL",
        "mid": 108.65,
        "atrPct1h": 0.9416,
        "fundingApr": 10.95,
        "ret24hPct": -2.96,
        "ret7dPct": 6.77,
        "rangePos48h": 0.3695,
        "betaToBtc30d": -0.0836
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 0,
        "kind": "perp",
        "coin": "SOL",
        "side": "long",
        "notionalUsd": 722.54,
        "qty": 6.63,
        "leverage": 1,
        "marginMode": "cross",
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 108.98,
        "stopPx": 101.44,
        "stopPct": 6.92,
        "takeProfits": [
          {
            "px": 116.52,
            "pct": 6.92,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          },
          {
            "px": 124.06,
            "pct": 13.84,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          }
        ],
        "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (6.9% from the 109 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "risk_box",
      "props": {
        "riskUsd": 49.99,
        "riskKind": "max_loss",
        "riskLabel": "max loss",
        "maxLossNote": "The stop at 101 is 6.9% from the 109 entry and costs about $49.99 if it fills (6.63 x the 109-101 gap). Cross margin at 1x posts $722.54; a gap through the stop can cost more than the stop.",
        "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.22
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "compare_hold",
      "props": {
        "note": "Versus just holding: this risks $49.99 (0.50% of a nominal. $722.54 of SOL held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "gap_risk_stops",
        "text": "A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "nominal_account_assumed",
        "text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "SOL",
        "url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/SOL"
      }
    }
  ],
  "market": {
    "SOL": {
      "coin": "SOL",
      "mid": 108.65,
      "markPx": 108.65,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 631205869.0999998,
      "vol24hUsd": 179246669.75919983,
      "maxLeverage": 20,
      "szDecimals": 2,
      "atrPct1h": 0.9416121661019614,
      "ret24hPct": -2.956413004644509,
      "ret7dPct": 6.770833333333326,
      "rangePos48h": 0.36946902654867325,
      "hi30d": 114.35,
      "lo30d": 84.731,
      "betaToBtc30d": -0.08363943146047492,
      "asOf": 1789884565196,
      "dex": null
    },
    "BTC": {
      "coin": "BTC",
      "mid": 80470,
      "markPx": 80470,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 3313298360.8504,
      "vol24hUsd": 1438716978.6412277,
      "maxLeverage": 40,
      "szDecimals": 5,
      "atrPct1h": 0.4030118525590632,
      "ret24hPct": -0.7547914456969451,
      "ret7dPct": 4.122457429739668,
      "rangePos48h": 0.670196671709531,
      "hi30d": 82268,
      "lo30d": 69352,
      "betaToBtc30d": 1,
      "asOf": 1789884565196,
      "dex": null
    }
  },
  "reader": {
    "structureConfidence": -1,
    "alternatives": [],
    "trace": {
      "ms": 298,
      "input_tokens": 701,
      "answers": {
        "warn_crowded_long": {
          "value": 0.16,
          "confidence": 0.16
        },
        "warn_gap_risk_stops": {
          "value": 0.93,
          "confidence": 0.93
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "numbersBy": "code",
  "compare": {
    "holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding: this risks $49.99 (0.50% of a nominal. $722.54 of SOL held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  }
}
Stats
atr 1d4.61%
vs 30d high-4.98%114.35
vs 30d low+28.23%84.731
beta btc-0.08
vol 24h$179.25M
vol / oi0.28
the check
the reader has not checked a plan for this thesis
outcomes1 of 3 rungs
4h2026-09-20 06:09Z → 2026-09-20 10:09Z/ledger/70
SOL108.71 → 108.06
ticket p&l-$5.01of risk-10.02%hold the same net exposure-$4.32versus hold-$0.69fees-$0.65funding-$0.04
#legsidenotionalentryexitp&lclosed
0SOL perplong$722.54108.71108.06-$4.97time
entry basis: SOL next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
1dprovisional2026-09-20 06:09Z → 2026-09-20 18:12Zunsigned
SOL108.71 → 109.89
ticket p&l+$7.05of risk+14.10%hold the same net exposure+$7.81versus hold-$0.76fees-$0.65funding-$0.11
#legsidenotionalentryexitp&lclosed
0SOL perplong$722.54108.71109.89+$7.16time
Provisional: the exit is the current mid after 12.06h, not the 1d deadline. Not stored, not signed, and it moves with the market.
entry basis: SOL next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
Counts are small and the sample is one regime; this is a record, not a forecast.
receipts2 signed
  • thesis#622026-09-20 06:09Z5102f457ab2a7b959abbf0af…raw
  • resolution#702026-09-20 10:10Z328b203716958b9444ace8b9…raw