thesis terminal

one thesis, the ticket code priced for it, and what happened next

the sentence2026-09-21 01:10Z
SOL runs into the weekend, I want to be long but I can't watch it, keep the risk small
Ticketlong swing

Long SOL swing, days, small risk

longSOLlong swingdirectionaldays-$50 / +$75structure: code
metricvalue
max loss$50.01
deployable / total$10,000 (nominal)
funding / day-$0.21
loss at stop$49.99
gap through stop$74.99
best case+$74.99 1.50R
worst case-$49.99 -1.00R
R:R at tp1 / tp21.00 / 2.00
structure fitcode
Proposed transactions
1longSOLperp$704.106.22 @ 113.21x cross
notional
$704.10
qty
6.22
entry
113.2 market
stop
105.16 +7.10%
tp 1
121.24 +7.10% · ½
tp 2
129.27 +14.20% · ½
lev
1x cross
funding/d
-$0.21
liq px
This asset right now
mid112.86
24h+1.70%
7d+13.30%
atr 1h0.97%
range 48h81.66%
funding apr+10.95%longs pay
open interest$678.16M
the steps
no plan was made for this thesis — the ticket was priced on its own
Warnings & versus holding
3top of rangegap riskno wallet
hold at tp1+$49.997.10% move
ticket at tp1+$25.0050.00% of size
delta-$25.00ticket − hold
raw JSON
{
  "structure": "swing",
  "title": "Long SOL swing, days, small risk",
  "legs": [
    {
      "kind": "perp",
      "coin": "SOL",
      "side": "long",
      "notionalUsd": 704.1,
      "qty": 6.22,
      "leverage": 1,
      "marginMode": "cross",
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 113.2
      },
      "stop": {
        "px": 105.16,
        "pct": 7.1
      },
      "takeProfits": [
        {
          "px": 121.24,
          "pct": 7.1,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        },
        {
          "px": 129.27,
          "pct": 14.2,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        }
      ],
      "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (7.1% from the 113 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
    }
  ],
  "riskUsd": 50.01,
  "riskKind": "max_loss",
  "horizon": "days",
  "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.21,
  "warnings": [
    "Price is at the top of its 30-day range. Buying here is buying strength - the stop is far from the nearest support.",
    "A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
    "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  ],
  "components": [
    {
      "type": "ticket_header",
      "props": {
        "title": "Long SOL swing, days, small risk",
        "structure": "swing",
        "view": "directional",
        "horizon": "days",
        "structureFit": null
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "market_strip",
      "props": {
        "coin": "SOL",
        "mid": 112.8614,
        "atrPct1h": 0.966,
        "fundingApr": 10.95,
        "ret24hPct": 1.7,
        "ret7dPct": 13.3,
        "rangePos48h": 0.8166,
        "betaToBtc30d": -0.4241
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 0,
        "kind": "perp",
        "coin": "SOL",
        "side": "long",
        "notionalUsd": 704.1,
        "qty": 6.22,
        "leverage": 1,
        "marginMode": "cross",
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 113.2,
        "stopPx": 105.16,
        "stopPct": 7.1,
        "takeProfits": [
          {
            "px": 121.24,
            "pct": 7.1,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          },
          {
            "px": 129.27,
            "pct": 14.2,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          }
        ],
        "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (7.1% from the 113 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "risk_box",
      "props": {
        "riskUsd": 50.01,
        "riskKind": "max_loss",
        "riskLabel": "max loss",
        "maxLossNote": "The stop at 105 is 7.1% from the 113 entry and costs about $50.01 if it fills (6.22 x the 113-105 gap). Cross margin at 1x posts $704.10; a gap through the stop can cost more than the stop.",
        "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.21
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "compare_hold",
      "props": {
        "note": "Versus just holding: this risks $50.01 (0.50% of a nominal. $704.10 of SOL held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "near_30d_high",
        "text": "Price is at the top of its 30-day range. Buying here is buying strength - the stop is far from the nearest support.",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "gap_risk_stops",
        "text": "A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "nominal_account_assumed",
        "text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "SOL",
        "url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/SOL"
      }
    }
  ],
  "market": {
    "SOL": {
      "coin": "SOL",
      "mid": 112.8614,
      "markPx": 112.8614,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 678160485.56442,
      "vol24hUsd": 299229276.1602,
      "maxLeverage": 20,
      "szDecimals": 2,
      "atrPct1h": 0.9660239218029057,
      "ret24hPct": 1.7044246192664758,
      "ret7dPct": 13.304420283307739,
      "rangePos48h": 0.8166268656716419,
      "hi30d": 114.35,
      "lo30d": 87.688,
      "betaToBtc30d": -0.42406086822355193,
      "asOf": 1789953033377,
      "dex": null
    },
    "BTC": {
      "coin": "BTC",
      "mid": 81834,
      "markPx": 81834,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 3552968944.7347198,
      "vol24hUsd": 1737770535.8843398,
      "maxLeverage": 40,
      "szDecimals": 5,
      "atrPct1h": 0.4504465105701866,
      "ret24hPct": 0.6196975285872375,
      "ret7dPct": 6.582443344620992,
      "rangePos48h": 0.9123376623376623,
      "hi30d": 82268,
      "lo30d": 73651,
      "betaToBtc30d": 1,
      "asOf": 1789953033377,
      "dex": null
    }
  },
  "reader": {
    "structureConfidence": -1,
    "alternatives": [],
    "trace": {
      "ms": 284,
      "input_tokens": 793,
      "answers": {
        "warn_crowded_long": {
          "value": 0.45,
          "confidence": 0.45
        },
        "warn_near_30d_high": {
          "value": 0.87,
          "confidence": 0.87
        },
        "warn_gap_risk_stops": {
          "value": 0.94,
          "confidence": 0.94
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "numbersBy": "code",
  "compare": {
    "holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding: this risks $50.01 (0.50% of a nominal. $704.10 of SOL held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  }
}
Stats
atr 1d4.73%
vs 30d high-1.30%114.35
vs 30d low+28.71%87.688
beta btc-0.42
vol 24h$299.23M
vol / oi0.44
the check
the reader has not checked a plan for this thesis
outcomes2 of 3 rungs
4h2026-09-21 01:10Z → 2026-09-21 05:10Z/ledger/129
SOL112.9 → 111.41
ticket p&l-$9.95of risk-19.91%hold the same net exposure-$9.29versus hold-$0.66fees-$0.63funding-$0.03
#legsidenotionalentryexitp&lclosed
0SOL perplong$704.10112.9111.41-$9.92time
entry basis: SOL next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
1d2026-09-21 01:10Z → 2026-09-22 01:10Z/ledger/171
SOL112.9 → 118.24
ticket p&l+$32.44of risk+64.87%hold the same net exposure+$33.30versus hold-$0.86fees-$0.65funding-$0.21
#legsidenotionalentryexitp&lclosed
0SOL perplong$704.10112.9118.24+$32.65time
entry basis: SOL next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
7dprovisional2026-09-21 01:10Z → 2026-09-23 06:05Zunsigned
SOL112.9 → 118.61
ticket p&l+$34.47of risk+68.92%hold the same net exposure+$35.58versus hold-$1.11fees-$0.65funding-$0.46
#legsidenotionalentryexitp&lclosed
0SOL perplong$704.10112.9118.61+$34.93time
Provisional: the exit is the current mid after 52.91h, not the 7d deadline. Not stored, not signed, and it moves with the market.
entry basis: SOL next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
Counts are small and the sample is one regime; this is a record, not a forecast.
receipts3 signed
  • thesis#1082026-09-21 01:10Zbc72ffcf15cfb157397a1eec…raw
  • resolution#1292026-09-21 05:15Z7f9123d944c65c565c2471a8…raw
  • resolution#1712026-09-22 01:11Z12996490aeeb58ccb9be09a7…raw