thesis terminal

one thesis, the ticket code priced for it, and what happened next

the sentence2026-09-20 07:21Z
Ticketlong swing

Long ETH swing, months, normal risk

longETHlong swingdirectionalmonths-$100 / +$150structure: code
metricvalue
max loss$100.00
deployable / total$10,000 (nominal)
funding / day-$0.21
loss at stop$99.99
gap through stop$149.99
best case+$149.99 1.50R
worst case-$99.99 -1.00R
R:R at tp1 / tp21.00 / 2.00
structure fitcode
Proposed transactions
1longETHperp$757.520.2936 @ 2,580.11x cross
notional
$757.52
qty
0.2936
entry
2,580.1 market
stop
2,239.5 +13.20%
tp 1
2,920.7 +13.20% · ½
tp 2
3,261.2 +26.40% · ½
lev
1x cross
funding/d
-$0.21
liq px
This asset right now
mid2,572.4
24h-2.14%
7d+2.40%
atr 1h0.67%
range 48h47.41%
funding apr+9.97%longs pay
open interest$2.65B
the steps
no plan was made for this thesis — the ticket was priced on its own
Warnings & versus holding
1no wallet
hold at tp1+$99.9913.20% move
ticket at tp1+$50.0050.00% of size
delta-$50.00ticket − hold
raw JSON
{
  "structure": "swing",
  "title": "Long ETH swing, months, normal risk",
  "legs": [
    {
      "kind": "perp",
      "coin": "ETH",
      "side": "long",
      "notionalUsd": 757.52,
      "qty": 0.2936,
      "leverage": 1,
      "marginMode": "cross",
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 2580.1
      },
      "stop": {
        "px": 2239.5,
        "pct": 13.2
      },
      "takeProfits": [
        {
          "px": 2920.7,
          "pct": 13.2,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        },
        {
          "px": 3261.2,
          "pct": 26.4,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        }
      ],
      "note": "Stop is 4x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a months-long hold (13.2% from the 2,580 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
    }
  ],
  "riskUsd": 100,
  "riskKind": "max_loss",
  "horizon": "months",
  "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.21,
  "warnings": [
    "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  ],
  "components": [
    {
      "type": "ticket_header",
      "props": {
        "title": "Long ETH swing, months, normal risk",
        "structure": "swing",
        "view": "directional",
        "horizon": "months",
        "structureFit": null
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "market_strip",
      "props": {
        "coin": "ETH",
        "mid": 2572.4,
        "atrPct1h": 0.6737,
        "fundingApr": 9.97,
        "ret24hPct": -2.14,
        "ret7dPct": 2.4,
        "rangePos48h": 0.4741,
        "betaToBtc30d": -0.0473
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 0,
        "kind": "perp",
        "coin": "ETH",
        "side": "long",
        "notionalUsd": 757.52,
        "qty": 0.2936,
        "leverage": 1,
        "marginMode": "cross",
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 2580.1,
        "stopPx": 2239.5,
        "stopPct": 13.2,
        "takeProfits": [
          {
            "px": 2920.7,
            "pct": 13.2,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          },
          {
            "px": 3261.2,
            "pct": 26.4,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          }
        ],
        "note": "Stop is 4x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a months-long hold (13.2% from the 2,580 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "risk_box",
      "props": {
        "riskUsd": 100,
        "riskKind": "max_loss",
        "riskLabel": "max loss",
        "maxLossNote": "The stop at 2,240 is 13.2% from the 2,580 entry and costs about $100.00 if it fills (0.2936 x the 2,580-2,240 gap). Cross margin at 1x posts $757.52; a gap through the stop can cost more than the stop.",
        "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.21
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "compare_hold",
      "props": {
        "note": "Versus just holding: this risks $100.00 (1.00% of a nominal. $757.52 of ETH held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "nominal_account_assumed",
        "text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "ETH",
        "url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/ETH"
      }
    }
  ],
  "market": {
    "ETH": {
      "coin": "ETH",
      "mid": 2572.4,
      "markPx": 2572.4,
      "fundingApr": 9.9657264,
      "oiUsd": 2652742149.6169596,
      "vol24hUsd": 1065025982.1690196,
      "maxLeverage": 25,
      "szDecimals": 4,
      "atrPct1h": 0.6737025604583531,
      "ret24hPct": -2.1417430669151916,
      "ret7dPct": 2.3963060265902447,
      "rangePos48h": 0.47414262384322264,
      "hi30d": 2669,
      "lo30d": 2245.7,
      "betaToBtc30d": -0.047323024698127804,
      "asOf": 1789888867840,
      "dex": null
    },
    "BTC": {
      "coin": "BTC",
      "mid": 80319,
      "markPx": 80319,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 3301623155.3054404,
      "vol24hUsd": 1436306449.8148997,
      "maxLeverage": 40,
      "szDecimals": 5,
      "atrPct1h": 0.40044677872892165,
      "ret24hPct": -0.9593449819352173,
      "ret7dPct": 4.207535419585873,
      "rangePos48h": 0.6234845083071396,
      "hi30d": 82268,
      "lo30d": 69493,
      "betaToBtc30d": 1,
      "asOf": 1789888867840,
      "dex": null
    }
  },
  "reader": {
    "structureConfidence": -1,
    "alternatives": [],
    "trace": {
      "ms": 266,
      "input_tokens": 586,
      "answers": {
        "warn_gap_risk_stops": {
          "value": 0.4,
          "confidence": 0.4
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "numbersBy": "code",
  "compare": {
    "holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding: this risks $100.00 (1.00% of a nominal. $757.52 of ETH held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  }
}
Stats
atr 1d3.30%
vs 30d high-3.62%2,669
vs 30d low+14.55%2,245.7
beta btc-0.05
vol 24h$1.07B
vol / oi0.40
the check
the reader has not checked a plan for this thesis
outcomes1 of 3 rungs
4h2026-09-20 07:21Z → 2026-09-20 11:21Z/ledger/77
ETH2,571 → 2,570
ticket p&l-$1.01of risk-1.01%hold the same net exposure-$0.29versus hold-$0.72fees-$0.68funding-$0.03
#legsidenotionalentryexitp&lclosed
0ETH perplong$757.522,5712,570-$0.98time
entry basis: ETH next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
1dprovisional2026-09-20 07:21Z → 2026-09-21 06:00Zunsigned
ETH2,571 → 2,666.7
ticket p&l+$27.29of risk+27.29%hold the same net exposure+$28.18versus hold-$0.89fees-$0.69funding-$0.20
#legsidenotionalentryexitp&lclosed
0ETH perplong$757.522,5712,666.7+$27.49time
Provisional: the exit is the current mid after 22.66h, not the 1d deadline. Not stored, not signed, and it moves with the market.
entry basis: ETH next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
Counts are small and the sample is one regime; this is a record, not a forecast.
receipts2 signed
  • thesis#642026-09-20 07:21Z7bfb1efffa8fb2e5ed9598ba…raw
  • resolution#772026-09-20 11:25Zd97e17dfbb8d0d19d3ad0a79…raw