thesis terminal

{
  "structure": "swing",
  "title": "Long PUMP swing, days, small risk",
  "legs": [
    {
      "kind": "perp",
      "coin": "PUMP",
      "side": "long",
      "notionalUsd": 443.26,
      "qty": 106706,
      "leverage": 1,
      "marginMode": "cross",
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 0.004154
      },
      "stop": {
        "px": 0.003685,
        "pct": 11.29
      },
      "takeProfits": [
        {
          "px": 0.004623,
          "pct": 11.29,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        },
        {
          "px": 0.005091,
          "pct": 22.56,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        }
      ],
      "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (11.3% from the 0.004154 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R. The 200ema you named is drawn on the chart, but this stop is the ATR rule measured from the entry, not that level - the ticket does not yet place stops on drawn levels."
    }
  ],
  "riskUsd": 50.05,
  "riskKind": "max_loss",
  "horizon": "days",
  "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.13,
  "warnings": [
    "This market is thin: the book at this size is a small fraction of the asset's own 24h volume and open interest, so the quoted price is not the price a fill of this size gets, and a stop is an order into the same book.",
    "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  ],
  "components": [
    {
      "type": "ticket_header",
      "props": {
        "title": "Long PUMP swing, days, small risk",
        "structure": "swing",
        "view": "directional",
        "horizon": "days",
        "structureFit": null
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "market_strip",
      "props": {
        "coin": "PUMP",
        "mid": 0.004142,
        "atrPct1h": 1.5351,
        "fundingApr": 10.95,
        "ret24hPct": -1.92,
        "ret7dPct": 9.52,
        "rangePos48h": 0.3167,
        "betaToBtc30d": 0.4507
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 0,
        "kind": "perp",
        "coin": "PUMP",
        "side": "long",
        "notionalUsd": 443.26,
        "qty": 106706,
        "leverage": 1,
        "marginMode": "cross",
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 0.004154,
        "stopPx": 0.003685,
        "stopPct": 11.29,
        "takeProfits": [
          {
            "px": 0.004623,
            "pct": 11.29,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          },
          {
            "px": 0.005091,
            "pct": 22.56,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          }
        ],
        "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (11.3% from the 0.004154 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R. The 200ema you named is drawn on the chart, but this stop is the ATR rule measured from the entry, not that level - the ticket does not yet place stops on drawn levels."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "risk_box",
      "props": {
        "riskUsd": 50.05,
        "riskKind": "max_loss",
        "riskLabel": "max loss",
        "maxLossNote": "The stop at 0.003685 is 11.3% from the 0.004154 entry and costs about $50.05 if it fills (106706 x the 0.004154-0.003685 gap). Cross margin at 1x posts $443.26; a gap through the stop can cost more than the stop.",
        "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.13
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "compare_hold",
      "props": {
        "note": "Versus just holding: this risks $50.05 (0.50% of a nominal. $443.26 of PUMP held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "low_liquidity",
        "text": "This market is thin: the book at this size is a small fraction of the asset's own 24h volume and open interest, so the quoted price is not the price a fill of this size gets, and a stop is an order into the same book.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "nominal_account_assumed",
        "text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "PUMP",
        "url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/PUMP"
      }
    }
  ],
  "market": {
    "PUMP": {
      "coin": "PUMP",
      "mid": 0.004142,
      "markPx": 0.004142,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 152427100.099856,
      "vol24hUsd": 35201218.87945196,
      "maxLeverage": 10,
      "szDecimals": 0,
      "atrPct1h": 1.5350803043110737,
      "ret24hPct": -1.9180677243665678,
      "ret7dPct": 9.518773135906923,
      "rangePos48h": 0.3167028199566151,
      "hi30d": 0.005463,
      "lo30d": 0.003042,
      "betaToBtc30d": 0.45072965046012936,
      "asOf": 1789868321394,
      "dex": null
    },
    "BTC": {
      "coin": "BTC",
      "mid": 81090,
      "markPx": 81090,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 3434197142.2985997,
      "vol24hUsd": 1172676428.2169902,
      "maxLeverage": 40,
      "szDecimals": 5,
      "atrPct1h": 0.32460346735521944,
      "ret24hPct": -0.7830661935641747,
      "ret7dPct": 4.9803865722460205,
      "rangePos48h": 0.8355716878402903,
      "hi30d": 82268,
      "lo30d": 68898,
      "betaToBtc30d": 1,
      "asOf": 1789868321394,
      "dex": null
    }
  },
  "reader": {
    "structureConfidence": -1,
    "alternatives": [],
    "trace": {
      "ms": 236,
      "input_tokens": 751,
      "answers": {
        "warn_crowded_long": {
          "value": 0.21,
          "confidence": 0.21
        },
        "warn_low_liquidity": {
          "value": 0.65,
          "confidence": 0.65
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "numbersBy": "code",
  "compare": {
    "holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding: this risks $50.05 (0.50% of a nominal. $443.26 of PUMP held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  }
}