thesis terminal

one thesis, the ticket code priced for it, and what happened next

the sentence2026-09-20 17:07Z
SOL runs into the weekend, I want to be long but I can't watch it, keep the risk small
Ticketlong swing

Long SOL swing, days, small risk

longSOLlong swingdirectionaldays-$50 / +$75structure: code
metricvalue
max loss$49.93
deployable / total$10,000 (nominal)
funding / day-$0.26
loss at stop$49.97
gap through stop$74.95
best case+$74.95 1.50R
worst case-$49.97 -1.00R
R:R at tp1 / tp21.00 / 2.00
structure fitcode
Proposed transactions
1longSOLperp$862.987.79 @ 110.781x cross
notional
$862.98
qty
7.79
entry
110.78 market
stop
104.37 +5.79%
tp 1
117.19 +5.79% · ½
tp 2
123.61 +11.58% · ½
lev
1x cross
funding/d
-$0.26
liq px
This asset right now
mid110.45
24h-1.44%
7d+9.62%
atr 1h0.79%
range 48h43.97%
funding apr+10.95%longs pay
open interest$660.68M
the steps
no plan was made for this thesis — the ticket was priced on its own
Warnings & versus holding
2gap riskno wallet
hold at tp1+$49.975.79% move
ticket at tp1+$24.9850.00% of size
delta-$24.98ticket − hold
raw JSON
{
  "structure": "swing",
  "title": "Long SOL swing, days, small risk",
  "legs": [
    {
      "kind": "perp",
      "coin": "SOL",
      "side": "long",
      "notionalUsd": 862.98,
      "qty": 7.79,
      "leverage": 1,
      "marginMode": "cross",
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 110.78
      },
      "stop": {
        "px": 104.37,
        "pct": 5.79
      },
      "takeProfits": [
        {
          "px": 117.19,
          "pct": 5.79,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        },
        {
          "px": 123.61,
          "pct": 11.58,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        }
      ],
      "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (5.8% from the 111 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
    }
  ],
  "riskUsd": 49.93,
  "riskKind": "max_loss",
  "horizon": "days",
  "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.26,
  "warnings": [
    "A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
    "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  ],
  "components": [
    {
      "type": "ticket_header",
      "props": {
        "title": "Long SOL swing, days, small risk",
        "structure": "swing",
        "view": "directional",
        "horizon": "days",
        "structureFit": null
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "market_strip",
      "props": {
        "coin": "SOL",
        "mid": 110.45,
        "atrPct1h": 0.7884,
        "fundingApr": 10.95,
        "ret24hPct": -1.44,
        "ret7dPct": 9.62,
        "rangePos48h": 0.4397,
        "betaToBtc30d": -0.3514
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 0,
        "kind": "perp",
        "coin": "SOL",
        "side": "long",
        "notionalUsd": 862.98,
        "qty": 7.79,
        "leverage": 1,
        "marginMode": "cross",
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 110.78,
        "stopPx": 104.37,
        "stopPct": 5.79,
        "takeProfits": [
          {
            "px": 117.19,
            "pct": 5.79,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          },
          {
            "px": 123.61,
            "pct": 11.58,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          }
        ],
        "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (5.8% from the 111 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "risk_box",
      "props": {
        "riskUsd": 49.93,
        "riskKind": "max_loss",
        "riskLabel": "max loss",
        "maxLossNote": "The stop at 104 is 5.8% from the 111 entry and costs about $49.93 if it fills (7.79 x the 111-104 gap). Cross margin at 1x posts $862.98; a gap through the stop can cost more than the stop.",
        "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.26
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "compare_hold",
      "props": {
        "note": "Versus just holding: this risks $49.93 (0.50% of a nominal. $862.98 of SOL held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "gap_risk_stops",
        "text": "A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "nominal_account_assumed",
        "text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "SOL",
        "url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/SOL"
      }
    }
  ],
  "market": {
    "SOL": {
      "coin": "SOL",
      "mid": 110.45,
      "markPx": 110.45,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 660681901.78,
      "vol24hUsd": 213755422.43290004,
      "maxLeverage": 20,
      "szDecimals": 2,
      "atrPct1h": 0.7884005437245114,
      "ret24hPct": -1.4367303230412243,
      "ret7dPct": 9.616911472806677,
      "rangePos48h": 0.4396551724137938,
      "hi30d": 114.35,
      "lo30d": 86.662,
      "betaToBtc30d": -0.35143756129424353,
      "asOf": 1789924025247,
      "dex": null
    },
    "BTC": {
      "coin": "BTC",
      "mid": 81463,
      "markPx": 81463,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 3408207017.74536,
      "vol24hUsd": 1488723086.0098612,
      "maxLeverage": 40,
      "szDecimals": 5,
      "atrPct1h": 0.37814816245273153,
      "ret24hPct": -0.4971295957004962,
      "ret7dPct": 5.446896640994114,
      "rangePos48h": 0.7115800865800865,
      "hi30d": 82268,
      "lo30d": 72303,
      "betaToBtc30d": 1,
      "asOf": 1789924025247,
      "dex": null
    }
  },
  "reader": {
    "structureConfidence": -1,
    "alternatives": [],
    "trace": {
      "ms": 318,
      "input_tokens": 702,
      "answers": {
        "warn_crowded_long": {
          "value": 0.19,
          "confidence": 0.19
        },
        "warn_gap_risk_stops": {
          "value": 0.94,
          "confidence": 0.94
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "numbersBy": "code",
  "compare": {
    "holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding: this risks $49.93 (0.50% of a nominal. $862.98 of SOL held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  }
}
Stats
atr 1d3.86%
vs 30d high-3.41%114.35
vs 30d low+27.45%86.662
beta btc-0.35
vol 24h$213.76M
vol / oi0.32
the check
the reader has not checked a plan for this thesis
outcomes2 of 3 rungs
4h2026-09-20 17:07Z → 2026-09-20 21:07Z/ledger/92
SOL110.06 → 109.96
ticket p&l-$1.60of risk-3.21%hold the same net exposure-$0.78versus hold-$0.82fees-$0.78funding-$0.04
#legsidenotionalentryexitp&lclosed
0SOL perplong$862.98110.06109.96-$1.56time
entry basis: SOL next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
1d2026-09-20 17:07Z → 2026-09-21 17:07Z/ledger/164
SOL110.06 → 117.79
ticket p&l+$57.20of risk+114.56%hold the same net exposure+$60.61versus hold-$3.41fees-$0.80funding-$0.26
#legsidenotionalentryexitp&lclosed
0SOL perplong$862.98110.06117.49+$57.46time
entry basis: SOL next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
7dprovisional2026-09-20 17:07Z → 2026-09-22 21:16Zunsigned
SOL110.06 → 117.81
ticket p&l+$56.95of risk+114.05%hold the same net exposure+$60.73versus hold-$3.78fees-$0.80funding-$0.56
#legsidenotionalentryexitp&lclosed
0SOL perplong$862.98110.06117.5+$57.51time
Provisional: the exit is the current mid after 52.16h, not the 7d deadline. Not stored, not signed, and it moves with the market.
entry basis: SOL next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
Counts are small and the sample is one regime; this is a record, not a forecast.
receipts3 signed
  • thesis#892026-09-20 17:07Z33514708d45d29bd84adaa34…raw
  • resolution#922026-09-20 21:10Z663c6d1f3f167a274f3d00cc…raw
  • resolution#1642026-09-21 17:10Z7721cc1aff0627ac2237210d…raw