thesis terminal

{
  "structure": "event fade, defined risk",
  "title": "Short ARB into unlock on the 16th, defined risk",
  "legs": [
    {
      "kind": "perp",
      "coin": "ARB",
      "side": "short",
      "notionalUsd": 373.13,
      "qty": 1808.5,
      "leverage": 8,
      "marginMode": "isolated",
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 0.20632
      },
      "stop": {
        "px": 0.23397,
        "pct": 13.4
      },
      "takeProfits": [
        {
          "px": 0.17867,
          "pct": 13.4,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        },
        {
          "px": 0.15103,
          "pct": 26.8,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        }
      ],
      "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (13.4% from the 0.20632 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
    }
  ],
  "riskUsd": 46.64,
  "riskKind": "margin_posted",
  "horizon": "days",
  "fundingPerDayUsd": 0.11,
  "warnings": [
    "A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
    "Defined risk here means isolated margin: the margin posted is the hard cap, and the rest of the account cannot be pulled in. It is not an option, and a gap can still cost the whole margin.",
    "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
    "This uses high leverage. Liquidation sits close to the stop, so a wick can close the position before the idea is wrong. The largest leg here is $373.13 of ARB at 8x isolated margin."
  ],
  "components": [
    {
      "type": "ticket_header",
      "props": {
        "title": "Short ARB into unlock on the 16th, defined risk",
        "structure": "event fade, defined risk",
        "view": "directional",
        "horizon": "days",
        "structureFit": 1
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "market_strip",
      "props": {
        "coin": "ARB",
        "mid": 0.20694,
        "atrPct1h": 1.8241,
        "fundingApr": 10.95,
        "ret24hPct": -5.5,
        "ret7dPct": 47.42,
        "rangePos48h": 0.5148,
        "betaToBtc30d": 0.8515
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "event_anchor",
      "props": {
        "label": "unlock on the 16th",
        "note": "Code found this catalyst in your sentence. The position uses isolated margin so the margin posted is the most this event can cost."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 0,
        "kind": "perp",
        "coin": "ARB",
        "side": "short",
        "notionalUsd": 373.13,
        "qty": 1808.5,
        "leverage": 8,
        "marginMode": "isolated",
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 0.20632,
        "stopPx": 0.23397,
        "stopPct": 13.4,
        "takeProfits": [
          {
            "px": 0.17867,
            "pct": 13.4,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          },
          {
            "px": 0.15103,
            "pct": 26.8,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          }
        ],
        "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (13.4% from the 0.20632 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "risk_box",
      "props": {
        "riskUsd": 46.64,
        "riskKind": "margin_posted",
        "riskLabel": "margin posted",
        "maxLossNote": "Isolated margin of $46.64 is the hard cap - nothing else in the account can be pulled in. The stop at 0.23397 should fill first and costs about $50.01; a gap through it can still cost the whole margin.",
        "fundingPerDayUsd": 0.11
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "compare_hold",
      "props": {
        "note": "Versus just holding: this posts $46.64 of margin (0.47% of a nominal. $373.13 of ARB held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "gap_risk_stops",
        "text": "A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "defined_risk_via_isolated_margin",
        "text": "Defined risk here means isolated margin: the margin posted is the hard cap, and the rest of the account cannot be pulled in. It is not an option, and a gap can still cost the whole margin.",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "nominal_account_assumed",
        "text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "high_leverage",
        "text": "This uses high leverage. Liquidation sits close to the stop, so a wick can close the position before the idea is wrong. The largest leg here is $373.13 of ARB at 8x isolated margin.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "ARB",
        "url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/ARB"
      }
    }
  ],
  "market": {
    "ARB": {
      "coin": "ARB",
      "mid": 0.20694,
      "markPx": 0.20694,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 33405655.121592,
      "vol24hUsd": 27677325.666987002,
      "maxLeverage": 10,
      "szDecimals": 1,
      "atrPct1h": 1.8241442918630866,
      "ret24hPct": -5.502534362299638,
      "ret7dPct": 47.42466338961317,
      "rangePos48h": 0.5148036253776435,
      "hi30d": 0.23103,
      "lo30d": 0.08315,
      "betaToBtc30d": 0.8515010998787462,
      "asOf": 1789869331765,
      "dex": null
    },
    "BTC": {
      "coin": "BTC",
      "mid": 81095,
      "markPx": 81095,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 3427476092.6777,
      "vol24hUsd": 1174593791.23997,
      "maxLeverage": 40,
      "szDecimals": 5,
      "atrPct1h": 0.32460346735521944,
      "ret24hPct": -0.776948488926954,
      "ret7dPct": 4.986859650712683,
      "rangePos48h": 0.8364791288566243,
      "hi30d": 82268,
      "lo30d": 68898,
      "betaToBtc30d": 1,
      "asOf": 1789869331765,
      "dex": null
    }
  },
  "reader": {
    "structureConfidence": 1,
    "alternatives": [
      {
        "structure": "event fade, defined risk",
        "p": 1
      },
      {
        "structure": "swing",
        "p": 0
      }
    ],
    "trace": {
      "ms": 337,
      "input_tokens": 1015,
      "answers": {
        "structure": {
          "value": "event_fade_defined_risk",
          "confidence": 1,
          "probabilities": {
            "event_fade_defined_risk": 1,
            "perp_swing": 0
          }
        },
        "warn_low_liquidity": {
          "value": 0.29,
          "confidence": 0.29
        },
        "warn_gap_risk_stops": {
          "value": 0.75,
          "confidence": 0.75
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "numbersBy": "code",
  "compare": {
    "holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding: this posts $46.64 of margin (0.47% of a nominal. $373.13 of ARB held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  }
}