thesis terminal

one thesis, the ticket code priced for it, and what happened next

the sentence2026-09-20 10:57Z
long BTC swing over the next few days, normal risk
Ticketlong swing

Long BTC swing, days, normal risk

longBTClong swingdirectionaldays-$100 / +$150structure: code
metricvalue
max loss$99.99
deployable / total$10,000 (nominal)
funding / day-$1.03
loss at stop$99.99
gap through stop$149.99
best case+$149.99 1.50R
worst case-$99.99 -1.00R
R:R at tp1 / tp21.00 / 2.00
structure fitcode
Proposed transactions
1longBTCperp$3,436.230.04264 @ 80,5872x cross
notional
$3,436.23
qty
0.04264
entry
80,587 market
stop
78,242 +2.91%
tp 1
82,932 +2.91% · ½
tp 2
85,277 +5.82% · ½
lev
2x cross
funding/d
-$1.03
liq px
41,301
This asset right now
mid80,346
24h-1.27%
7d+4.66%
atr 1h0.40%
range 48h58.71%
funding apr+10.95%longs pay
open interest$3.24B
the steps
no plan was made for this thesis — the ticket was priced on its own
Warnings & versus holding
1no wallet
hold at tp1+$99.992.91% move
ticket at tp1+$50.0050.00% of size
delta-$50.00ticket − hold
raw JSON
{
  "structure": "swing",
  "title": "Long BTC swing, days, normal risk",
  "legs": [
    {
      "kind": "perp",
      "coin": "BTC",
      "side": "long",
      "notionalUsd": 3436.23,
      "qty": 0.04264,
      "leverage": 2,
      "marginMode": "cross",
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 80587
      },
      "stop": {
        "px": 78242,
        "pct": 2.91
      },
      "takeProfits": [
        {
          "px": 82932,
          "pct": 2.91,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        },
        {
          "px": 85277,
          "pct": 5.82,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        }
      ],
      "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (2.9% from the 80,587 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
    }
  ],
  "riskUsd": 99.99,
  "riskKind": "max_loss",
  "horizon": "days",
  "fundingPerDayUsd": -1.03,
  "warnings": [
    "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  ],
  "components": [
    {
      "type": "ticket_header",
      "props": {
        "title": "Long BTC swing, days, normal risk",
        "structure": "swing",
        "view": "directional",
        "horizon": "days",
        "structureFit": null
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "market_strip",
      "props": {
        "coin": "BTC",
        "mid": 80346,
        "atrPct1h": 0.3961,
        "fundingApr": 10.95,
        "ret24hPct": -1.27,
        "ret7dPct": 4.66,
        "rangePos48h": 0.5871,
        "betaToBtc30d": 1
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 0,
        "kind": "perp",
        "coin": "BTC",
        "side": "long",
        "notionalUsd": 3436.23,
        "qty": 0.04264,
        "leverage": 2,
        "marginMode": "cross",
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 80587,
        "stopPx": 78242,
        "stopPct": 2.91,
        "takeProfits": [
          {
            "px": 82932,
            "pct": 2.91,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          },
          {
            "px": 85277,
            "pct": 5.82,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          }
        ],
        "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (2.9% from the 80,587 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "risk_box",
      "props": {
        "riskUsd": 99.99,
        "riskKind": "max_loss",
        "riskLabel": "max loss",
        "maxLossNote": "The stop at 78,242 is 2.9% from the 80,587 entry and costs about $99.99 if it fills (0.04264 x the 80,587-78,242 gap). Cross margin at 2x posts $1,718; a gap through the stop can cost more than the stop.",
        "fundingPerDayUsd": -1.03
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "compare_hold",
      "props": {
        "note": "Versus just holding: this risks $99.99 (1.00% of a nominal. $3,436 of BTC held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "nominal_account_assumed",
        "text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "BTC",
        "url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/BTC"
      }
    }
  ],
  "market": {
    "BTC": {
      "coin": "BTC",
      "mid": 80346,
      "markPx": 80346,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 3235350108.99408,
      "vol24hUsd": 1489464394.5926204,
      "maxLeverage": 40,
      "szDecimals": 5,
      "atrPct1h": 0.396095503224157,
      "ret24hPct": -1.268156012681565,
      "ret7dPct": 4.662159521669462,
      "rangePos48h": 0.5870870870870871,
      "hi30d": 82268,
      "lo30d": 71134,
      "betaToBtc30d": 1,
      "asOf": 1789901877841,
      "dex": null
    }
  },
  "reader": {
    "structureConfidence": -1,
    "alternatives": [],
    "trace": {
      "ms": 282,
      "input_tokens": 594,
      "answers": {
        "warn_crowded_long": {
          "value": 0.12,
          "confidence": 0.12
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "numbersBy": "code",
  "compare": {
    "holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding: this risks $99.99 (1.00% of a nominal. $3,436 of BTC held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  }
}
Stats
atr 1d1.94%
vs 30d high-2.34%82,268
vs 30d low+12.95%71,134
beta btc1.00
vol 24h$1.49B
vol / oi0.46
the check
the reader has not checked a plan for this thesis
outcomes2 of 3 rungs
4h2026-09-20 10:57Z → 2026-09-20 14:57Z/ledger/87
BTC80,345 → 80,701
ticket p&l+$11.96of risk+11.96%hold the same net exposure+$15.23versus hold-$3.27fees-$3.10funding-$0.17
#legsidenotionalentryexitp&lclosed
0BTC perplong$3,436.2380,34580,701+$12.13time
entry basis: BTC next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
1d2026-09-20 10:57Z → 2026-09-21 10:57Z/ledger/154
BTC80,345 → 84,469
ticket p&l+$156.59of risk+156.61%hold the same net exposure+$176.38versus hold-$19.79fees-$3.16funding-$1.03
#legsidenotionalentryexitp&lclosed
0BTC perplong$3,436.2380,34584,105+$157.62target
entry basis: BTC next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
7dprovisional2026-09-20 10:57Z → 2026-09-22 02:44Zunsigned
BTC80,345 → 85,877
ticket p&l+$155.91of risk+155.93%hold the same net exposure+$236.57versus hold-$80.66fees-$3.16funding-$1.71
#legsidenotionalentryexitp&lclosed
0BTC perplong$3,436.2380,34584,105+$157.62target
Provisional: the exit is the current mid after 39.77h, not the 7d deadline. Not stored, not signed, and it moves with the market.
entry basis: BTC next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
Counts are small and the sample is one regime; this is a record, not a forecast.
receipts3 signed
  • thesis#762026-09-20 10:57Za31a4cf5ff521ea4236443a8…raw
  • resolution#872026-09-20 15:01Zea6e665720d846ad3e1c4934…raw
  • resolution#1542026-09-21 11:01Z0dbaa6dfd873aa5048c219c9…raw