the sentence2026-09-20 10:57Z
long BTC swing over the next few days, normal risk
Ticketlong swing
Long BTC swing, days, normal risk
longBTClong swingdirectionaldays-$100 / +$150structure: code| metric | value |
|---|---|
| max loss | $99.99 |
| deployable / total | $10,000 (nominal) |
| funding / day | -$1.03 |
| loss at stop | $99.99 |
| gap through stop | $149.99 |
| best case | +$149.99 1.50R |
| worst case | -$99.99 -1.00R |
| R:R at tp1 / tp2 | 1.00 / 2.00 |
| structure fit | code |
Proposed transactions
1longBTCperp$3,436.230.04264 @ 80,5872x cross
- notional
- $3,436.23
- qty
- 0.04264
- entry
- 80,587 market
- stop
- 78,242 +2.91%
- tp 1
- 82,932 +2.91% · ½
- tp 2
- 85,277 +5.82% · ½
- lev
- 2x cross
- funding/d
- -$1.03
- liq px
- 41,301
This asset right now
mid80,346
24h-1.27%
7d+4.66%
atr 1h0.40%
range 48h58.71%
funding apr+10.95%longs pay
open interest$3.24B
the steps
no plan was made for this thesis — the ticket was priced on its own
Warnings & versus holding
1no wallet
hold at tp1+$99.992.91% move
ticket at tp1+$50.0050.00% of size
delta-$50.00ticket − hold
raw JSON
{
"structure": "swing",
"title": "Long BTC swing, days, normal risk",
"legs": [
{
"kind": "perp",
"coin": "BTC",
"side": "long",
"notionalUsd": 3436.23,
"qty": 0.04264,
"leverage": 2,
"marginMode": "cross",
"entry": {
"type": "market",
"px": 80587
},
"stop": {
"px": 78242,
"pct": 2.91
},
"takeProfits": [
{
"px": 82932,
"pct": 2.91,
"sizeFrac": 0.5
},
{
"px": 85277,
"pct": 5.82,
"sizeFrac": 0.5
}
],
"note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (2.9% from the 80,587 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
}
],
"riskUsd": 99.99,
"riskKind": "max_loss",
"horizon": "days",
"fundingPerDayUsd": -1.03,
"warnings": [
"No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
],
"components": [
{
"type": "ticket_header",
"props": {
"title": "Long BTC swing, days, normal risk",
"structure": "swing",
"view": "directional",
"horizon": "days",
"structureFit": null
}
},
{
"type": "market_strip",
"props": {
"coin": "BTC",
"mid": 80346,
"atrPct1h": 0.3961,
"fundingApr": 10.95,
"ret24hPct": -1.27,
"ret7dPct": 4.66,
"rangePos48h": 0.5871,
"betaToBtc30d": 1
}
},
{
"type": "leg_row",
"props": {
"index": 0,
"kind": "perp",
"coin": "BTC",
"side": "long",
"notionalUsd": 3436.23,
"qty": 0.04264,
"leverage": 2,
"marginMode": "cross",
"entryType": "market",
"entryPx": 80587,
"stopPx": 78242,
"stopPct": 2.91,
"takeProfits": [
{
"px": 82932,
"pct": 2.91,
"sizeFrac": 0.5
},
{
"px": 85277,
"pct": 5.82,
"sizeFrac": 0.5
}
],
"note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (2.9% from the 80,587 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
}
},
{
"type": "risk_box",
"props": {
"riskUsd": 99.99,
"riskKind": "max_loss",
"riskLabel": "max loss",
"maxLossNote": "The stop at 78,242 is 2.9% from the 80,587 entry and costs about $99.99 if it fills (0.04264 x the 80,587-78,242 gap). Cross margin at 2x posts $1,718; a gap through the stop can cost more than the stop.",
"fundingPerDayUsd": -1.03
}
},
{
"type": "compare_hold",
"props": {
"note": "Versus just holding: this risks $99.99 (1.00% of a nominal. $3,436 of BTC held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
}
},
{
"type": "warning",
"props": {
"key": "nominal_account_assumed",
"text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
"severity": "info"
}
},
{
"type": "hl_link",
"props": {
"coin": "BTC",
"url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/BTC"
}
}
],
"market": {
"BTC": {
"coin": "BTC",
"mid": 80346,
"markPx": 80346,
"fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
"oiUsd": 3235350108.99408,
"vol24hUsd": 1489464394.5926204,
"maxLeverage": 40,
"szDecimals": 5,
"atrPct1h": 0.396095503224157,
"ret24hPct": -1.268156012681565,
"ret7dPct": 4.662159521669462,
"rangePos48h": 0.5870870870870871,
"hi30d": 82268,
"lo30d": 71134,
"betaToBtc30d": 1,
"asOf": 1789901877841,
"dex": null
}
},
"reader": {
"structureConfidence": -1,
"alternatives": [],
"trace": {
"ms": 282,
"input_tokens": 594,
"answers": {
"warn_crowded_long": {
"value": 0.12,
"confidence": 0.12
}
}
}
},
"numbersBy": "code",
"compare": {
"holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding: this risks $99.99 (1.00% of a nominal. $3,436 of BTC held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
}
}Stats
atr 1d1.94%
vs 30d high-2.34%82,268
vs 30d low+12.95%71,134
beta btc1.00
vol 24h$1.49B
vol / oi0.46
the check
the reader has not checked a plan for this thesis
outcomes2 of 3 rungs
BTC80,345 → 80,701
ticket p&l+$11.96of risk+11.96%hold the same net exposure+$15.23versus hold-$3.27fees-$3.10funding-$0.17
| # | leg | side | notional | entry | exit | p&l | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | BTC perp | long | $3,436.23 | 80,345 | 80,701 | +$12.13 | time |
entry basis: BTC next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
BTC80,345 → 84,469
ticket p&l+$156.59of risk+156.61%hold the same net exposure+$176.38versus hold-$19.79fees-$3.16funding-$1.03
| # | leg | side | notional | entry | exit | p&l | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | BTC perp | long | $3,436.23 | 80,345 | 84,105 | +$157.62 | target |
entry basis: BTC next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
7dprovisional2026-09-20 10:57Z → 2026-09-22 02:44Zunsigned
BTC80,345 → 85,877
ticket p&l+$155.91of risk+155.93%hold the same net exposure+$236.57versus hold-$80.66fees-$3.16funding-$1.71
| # | leg | side | notional | entry | exit | p&l | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | BTC perp | long | $3,436.23 | 80,345 | 84,105 | +$157.62 | target |
Provisional: the exit is the current mid after 39.77h, not the 7d deadline. Not stored, not signed, and it moves with the market.
entry basis: BTC next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
Counts are small and the sample is one regime; this is a record, not a forecast.
receipts3 signed