thesis terminal

{
  "structure": "pair trade",
  "title": "Long ETH / short BTC, beta-weighted",
  "legs": [
    {
      "kind": "perp",
      "coin": "ETH",
      "side": "long",
      "notionalUsd": 938.06,
      "qty": 0.3534,
      "leverage": 1,
      "marginMode": "cross",
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 2654.4
      },
      "stop": {
        "px": 2512.9,
        "pct": 5.33
      },
      "takeProfits": [
        {
          "px": 2795.9,
          "pct": 5.33,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        },
        {
          "px": 2937.4,
          "pct": 10.66,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        }
      ],
      "note": "Long leg. v0 approximates a spread stop with per-leg stops; take both legs off together."
    },
    {
      "kind": "perp",
      "coin": "BTC",
      "side": "short",
      "notionalUsd": 281.02,
      "qty": 0.00347,
      "leverage": 1,
      "marginMode": "cross",
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 80985
      },
      "stop": {
        "px": 83496,
        "pct": 3.1
      },
      "takeProfits": [
        {
          "px": 78474,
          "pct": 3.1,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        },
        {
          "px": 75964,
          "pct": 6.2,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        }
      ],
      "hedgeOf": 0,
      "note": "Short leg, beta-weighted: ETH beta 0.30 / BTC beta 1.00 = 0.30x the long leg. v0 approximates a spread stop with per-leg stops; take both legs off together."
    }
  ],
  "riskUsd": 58.72,
  "riskKind": "max_loss",
  "horizon": "days",
  "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.2,
  "warnings": [
    "Price is at the top of its 30-day range. Buying here is buying strength - the stop is far from the nearest support.",
    "The two legs are matched on 30-day beta, which is a measurement of the last 30 days and not a property of the pair. The hedge is exact only for the beta it was sized at, and the spread has no stop on either leg alone.",
    "A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
    "The legs do not land at the same instant. Between the first fill and the last, the position is exposed to price in a way the thesis did not ask for.",
    "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  ],
  "components": [
    {
      "type": "ticket_header",
      "props": {
        "title": "Long ETH / short BTC, beta-weighted",
        "structure": "pair trade",
        "view": "relative",
        "horizon": "days",
        "structureFit": null
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "market_strip",
      "props": {
        "coin": "ETH",
        "mid": 2646.45,
        "atrPct1h": 0.7256,
        "fundingApr": 10.95,
        "ret24hPct": 0.59,
        "ret7dPct": 6.95,
        "rangePos48h": 0.7875,
        "betaToBtc30d": -0.3473
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "market_strip",
      "props": {
        "coin": "BTC",
        "mid": 81229,
        "atrPct1h": 0.4216,
        "fundingApr": 10.95,
        "ret24hPct": -0.07,
        "ret7dPct": 5.91,
        "rangePos48h": 0.585,
        "betaToBtc30d": 1
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "event_anchor",
      "props": {
        "label": "Fed",
        "note": "Code found this catalyst in your sentence. It does not know what the event contains - it only shortens the horizon and argues for defined risk."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 0,
        "kind": "perp",
        "coin": "ETH",
        "side": "long",
        "notionalUsd": 938.06,
        "qty": 0.3534,
        "leverage": 1,
        "marginMode": "cross",
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 2654.4,
        "stopPx": 2512.9,
        "stopPct": 5.33,
        "takeProfits": [
          {
            "px": 2795.9,
            "pct": 5.33,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          },
          {
            "px": 2937.4,
            "pct": 10.66,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          }
        ],
        "note": "Long leg. v0 approximates a spread stop with per-leg stops; take both legs off together."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 1,
        "kind": "perp",
        "coin": "BTC",
        "side": "short",
        "notionalUsd": 281.02,
        "qty": 0.00347,
        "leverage": 1,
        "marginMode": "cross",
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 80985,
        "stopPx": 83496,
        "stopPct": 3.1,
        "takeProfits": [
          {
            "px": 78474,
            "pct": 3.1,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          },
          {
            "px": 75964,
            "pct": 6.2,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          }
        ],
        "note": "Short leg, beta-weighted: ETH beta 0.30 / BTC beta 1.00 = 0.30x the long leg. v0 approximates a spread stop with per-leg stops; take both legs off together."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "risk_box",
      "props": {
        "riskUsd": 58.72,
        "riskKind": "max_loss",
        "riskLabel": "max loss",
        "maxLossNote": "Both stops filling is the worst case: $58.72 ($50.01 on ETH, $8.71 on BTC). A spread can lose on both legs at once, which is exactly this case.",
        "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.2
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "compare_hold",
      "props": {
        "note": "Versus just holding: this risks $58.72 (0.59% of a nominal. Holding $938.06 of ETH outright would keep the market exposure this trade is built to cancel. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "near_30d_high",
        "text": "Price is at the top of its 30-day range. Buying here is buying strength - the stop is far from the nearest support.",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "pair_beta_unstable",
        "text": "The two legs are matched on 30-day beta, which is a measurement of the last 30 days and not a property of the pair. The hedge is exact only for the beta it was sized at, and the spread has no stop on either leg alone.",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "gap_risk_stops",
        "text": "A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "unhedged_window",
        "text": "The legs do not land at the same instant. Between the first fill and the last, the position is exposed to price in a way the thesis did not ask for.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "nominal_account_assumed",
        "text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "ETH",
        "url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/ETH"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "BTC",
        "url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/BTC"
      }
    }
  ],
  "market": {
    "ETH": {
      "coin": "ETH",
      "mid": 2646.45,
      "markPx": 2646.45,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 2894128662.5082903,
      "vol24hUsd": 1230510900.0598998,
      "maxLeverage": 25,
      "szDecimals": 4,
      "atrPct1h": 0.7255668998652758,
      "ret24hPct": 0.5948760833206501,
      "ret7dPct": 6.948878561325511,
      "rangePos48h": 0.787464655984918,
      "hi30d": 2669,
      "lo30d": 2313.9,
      "betaToBtc30d": -0.34731587696419297,
      "asOf": 1789948550458,
      "dex": null
    },
    "BTC": {
      "coin": "BTC",
      "mid": 81229,
      "markPx": 81229,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 3505400782.74116,
      "vol24hUsd": 1558896498.3418503,
      "maxLeverage": 40,
      "szDecimals": 5,
      "atrPct1h": 0.42156929962888534,
      "ret24hPct": -0.07135212272565417,
      "ret7dPct": 5.908966452403619,
      "rangePos48h": 0.58495670995671,
      "hi30d": 82268,
      "lo30d": 72632,
      "betaToBtc30d": 1,
      "asOf": 1789948550458,
      "dex": null
    }
  },
  "reader": {
    "structureConfidence": -1,
    "alternatives": [],
    "trace": {
      "ms": 542,
      "input_tokens": 1049,
      "answers": {
        "warn_crowded_long": {
          "value": 0.26,
          "confidence": 0.26
        },
        "warn_near_30d_high": {
          "value": 0.76,
          "confidence": 0.76
        },
        "warn_pair_beta_unstable": {
          "value": 0.72,
          "confidence": 0.72
        },
        "warn_gap_risk_stops": {
          "value": 0.63,
          "confidence": 0.63
        },
        "warn_unhedged_window": {
          "value": 0.75,
          "confidence": 0.75
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "numbersBy": "code",
  "compare": {
    "holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding: this risks $58.72 (0.59% of a nominal. Holding $938.06 of ETH outright would keep the market exposure this trade is built to cancel. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  }
}