thesis terminal

{
  "structure": "funding harvest",
  "title": "Harvest PONS funding (no spot market - capped short with a stop)",
  "legs": [
    {
      "kind": "perp",
      "coin": "PONS",
      "side": "short",
      "notionalUsd": 799.74,
      "qty": 1350,
      "leverage": 1,
      "marginMode": "cross",
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 0.5924
      },
      "stop": {
        "px": 0.7405,
        "pct": 25
      },
      "note": "Short with no spot hedge, so it is sized like a directional short, not a carry: $799.74 at 1x cross with a stop 25.0% away at 0.7405 (stop clamped at 25%; the ATR rule gave 66.2%). Funding at today's 82.3% APR pays $1.80/day, which is the whole reason for the trade and not enough on its own."
    }
  ],
  "riskUsd": 199.94,
  "riskKind": "max_loss",
  "horizon": "months",
  "fundingPerDayUsd": 1.8,
  "warnings": [
    "This market is thin: the book at this size is a small fraction of the asset's own 24h volume and open interest, so the quoted price is not the price a fill of this size gets, and a stop is an order into the same book.",
    "A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
    "The stop this horizon's volatility asks for is wider than the 25% this prototype allows, so it was capped. The stop therefore sits closer than the asset's own range implies and the position is larger than the ATR rule alone would give: ordinary noise can take it out before the idea is wrong. PONS: stop clamped at 25%; the ATR rule gave 66.2%.",
    "There is no spot market for this asset on Hyperliquid, so the carry cannot be hedged here: the short leg alone is a naked short, not a funding harvest. PONS has no USDC spot pair, so what is left is a naked short: this ticket caps it at $799.74 (5x the risk budget) and puts a stop on it rather than pricing a carry that cannot be built here.",
    "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  ],
  "components": [
    {
      "type": "ticket_header",
      "props": {
        "title": "Harvest PONS funding (no spot market - capped short with a stop)",
        "structure": "funding harvest",
        "view": "carry",
        "horizon": "months",
        "structureFit": null
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "market_strip",
      "props": {
        "coin": "PONS",
        "mid": 0.59418,
        "atrPct1h": 3.3755,
        "fundingApr": 82.31,
        "ret24hPct": -10.21,
        "ret7dPct": -0.65,
        "rangePos48h": 0.141,
        "betaToBtc30d": 0.9249
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 0,
        "kind": "perp",
        "coin": "PONS",
        "side": "short",
        "notionalUsd": 799.74,
        "qty": 1350,
        "leverage": 1,
        "marginMode": "cross",
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 0.5924,
        "stopPx": 0.7405,
        "stopPct": 25,
        "note": "Short with no spot hedge, so it is sized like a directional short, not a carry: $799.74 at 1x cross with a stop 25.0% away at 0.7405 (stop clamped at 25%; the ATR rule gave 66.2%). Funding at today's 82.3% APR pays $1.80/day, which is the whole reason for the trade and not enough on its own."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "yield_quote",
      "props": {
        "project": "hyperlend-pooled",
        "symbol": "USDC",
        "apy": 5.04,
        "tvlUsd": 20233891,
        "url": "https://defillama.com/yields/pool/9d21c8a0-4ea9-4585-81a7-e3d09ab24a45",
        "note": "$799.74 here pays about $3.31 over 30 days at today's APY (not a promise; the rate moves). Of that, 5.04% is base yield and none reported is reward emissions, which stop when the programme does."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "risk_box",
      "props": {
        "riskUsd": 199.94,
        "riskKind": "max_loss",
        "riskLabel": "max loss",
        "maxLossNote": "There is no spot leg, so this is a directional short and the stop at 0.7405 is what defines the loss: about $199.94 if it fills. $799.74 of margin is posted at 1x, and a gap through the stop can cost more than the stop.",
        "fundingPerDayUsd": 1.8
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "compare_hold",
      "props": {
        "note": "Versus just holding USDC: this risks $199.94 (2.00% of a nominal. The same $799.74 of USDC lent instead pays about $3.31 over 30 days at APY 5.04% at $20.2M TVL on hyperlend-pooled (DefiLlama, today) - that is the opportunity cost of the margin, at today's APY. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "low_liquidity",
        "text": "This market is thin: the book at this size is a small fraction of the asset's own 24h volume and open interest, so the quoted price is not the price a fill of this size gets, and a stop is an order into the same book.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "gap_risk_stops",
        "text": "A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "stop_clamped",
        "text": "The stop this horizon's volatility asks for is wider than the 25% this prototype allows, so it was capped. The stop therefore sits closer than the asset's own range implies and the position is larger than the ATR rule alone would give: ordinary noise can take it out before the idea is wrong. PONS: stop clamped at 25%; the ATR rule gave 66.2%.",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "no_spot_market",
        "text": "There is no spot market for this asset on Hyperliquid, so the carry cannot be hedged here: the short leg alone is a naked short, not a funding harvest. PONS has no USDC spot pair, so what is left is a naked short: this ticket caps it at $799.74 (5x the risk budget) and puts a stop on it rather than pricing a carry that cannot be built here.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "nominal_account_assumed",
        "text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "PONS",
        "url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/PONS"
      }
    }
  ],
  "market": {
    "PONS": {
      "coin": "PONS",
      "mid": 0.59418,
      "markPx": 0.59418,
      "fundingApr": 82.3051056,
      "oiUsd": 55951464.753000006,
      "vol24hUsd": 32463977.32311,
      "maxLeverage": 3,
      "szDecimals": 0,
      "atrPct1h": 3.3754548736109893,
      "ret24hPct": -10.205376977830161,
      "ret7dPct": -0.6537477637144851,
      "rangePos48h": 0.14098515201508366,
      "hi30d": 0.98652,
      "lo30d": 0.301,
      "betaToBtc30d": 0.9248665939966069,
      "asOf": 1789863195110,
      "dex": null
    },
    "BTC": {
      "coin": "BTC",
      "mid": 81320,
      "markPx": 81320,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 3465181724.8952,
      "vol24hUsd": 1304798582.39668,
      "maxLeverage": 40,
      "szDecimals": 5,
      "atrPct1h": 0.3244916034612437,
      "ret24hPct": 0.4992832072766795,
      "ret7dPct": 5.27133388566694,
      "rangePos48h": 0.8821683806867701,
      "hi30d": 82268,
      "lo30d": 68898,
      "betaToBtc30d": 1,
      "asOf": 1789863195110,
      "dex": null
    }
  },
  "reader": {
    "structureConfidence": -1,
    "alternatives": [],
    "trace": {
      "ms": 299,
      "input_tokens": 893,
      "answers": {
        "warn_funding_cost_high": {
          "value": 0.15,
          "confidence": 0.15
        },
        "warn_low_liquidity": {
          "value": 0.64,
          "confidence": 0.64
        },
        "warn_gap_risk_stops": {
          "value": 0.71,
          "confidence": 0.71
        },
        "warn_unhedged_window": {
          "value": 0.08,
          "confidence": 0.08
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "numbersBy": "code",
  "compare": {
    "holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding USDC: this risks $199.94 (2.00% of a nominal. The same $799.74 of USDC lent instead pays about $3.31 over 30 days at APY 5.04% at $20.2M TVL on hyperlend-pooled (DefiLlama, today) - that is the opportunity cost of the margin, at today's APY. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  }
}