thesis terminal

{
  "structure": "pair trade",
  "title": "Long ETH / short BTC",
  "legs": [
    {
      "kind": "perp",
      "coin": "ETH",
      "side": "long",
      "notionalUsd": 1436.66,
      "qty": 0.5468,
      "leverage": 1,
      "marginMode": "cross",
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 2627.4
      },
      "stop": {
        "px": 2536,
        "pct": 3.48
      },
      "takeProfits": [
        {
          "px": 2718.8,
          "pct": 3.48,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        },
        {
          "px": 2810.3,
          "pct": 6.96,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        }
      ],
      "note": "Long leg. v0 approximates a spread stop with per-leg stops; take both legs off together."
    },
    {
      "kind": "perp",
      "coin": "BTC",
      "side": "short",
      "notionalUsd": 1436.22,
      "qty": 0.01776,
      "leverage": 1,
      "marginMode": "cross",
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 80868
      },
      "stop": {
        "px": 82865,
        "pct": 2.47
      },
      "takeProfits": [
        {
          "px": 78871,
          "pct": 2.47,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        },
        {
          "px": 76873,
          "pct": 4.94,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        }
      ],
      "hedgeOf": 0,
      "note": "Short leg, equal notional to the long. v0 approximates a spread stop with per-leg stops; take both legs off together."
    }
  ],
  "riskUsd": 85.45,
  "riskKind": "max_loss",
  "horizon": "days",
  "fundingPerDayUsd": 0,
  "warnings": [
    "Price is at the top of its 30-day range. Buying here is buying strength - the stop is far from the nearest support.",
    "The two legs are matched on 30-day beta, which is a measurement of the last 30 days and not a property of the pair. The hedge is exact only for the beta it was sized at, and the spread has no stop on either leg alone.",
    "A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
    "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  ],
  "components": [
    {
      "type": "ticket_header",
      "props": {
        "title": "Long ETH / short BTC",
        "structure": "pair trade",
        "view": "relative",
        "horizon": "days",
        "structureFit": null
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "market_strip",
      "props": {
        "coin": "ETH",
        "mid": 2619.5,
        "atrPct1h": 0.4742,
        "fundingApr": 10.95,
        "ret24hPct": 0.21,
        "ret7dPct": 3.74,
        "rangePos48h": 0.7725,
        "betaToBtc30d": -0.0606
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "market_strip",
      "props": {
        "coin": "BTC",
        "mid": 81111,
        "atrPct1h": 0.3357,
        "fundingApr": 10.95,
        "ret24hPct": -0.26,
        "ret7dPct": 4.95,
        "rangePos48h": 0.8358,
        "betaToBtc30d": 1
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "event_anchor",
      "props": {
        "label": "Fed",
        "note": "Code found this catalyst in your sentence. It does not know what the event contains - it only shortens the horizon and argues for defined risk."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 0,
        "kind": "perp",
        "coin": "ETH",
        "side": "long",
        "notionalUsd": 1436.66,
        "qty": 0.5468,
        "leverage": 1,
        "marginMode": "cross",
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 2627.4,
        "stopPx": 2536,
        "stopPct": 3.48,
        "takeProfits": [
          {
            "px": 2718.8,
            "pct": 3.48,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          },
          {
            "px": 2810.3,
            "pct": 6.96,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          }
        ],
        "note": "Long leg. v0 approximates a spread stop with per-leg stops; take both legs off together."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 1,
        "kind": "perp",
        "coin": "BTC",
        "side": "short",
        "notionalUsd": 1436.22,
        "qty": 0.01776,
        "leverage": 1,
        "marginMode": "cross",
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 80868,
        "stopPx": 82865,
        "stopPct": 2.47,
        "takeProfits": [
          {
            "px": 78871,
            "pct": 2.47,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          },
          {
            "px": 76873,
            "pct": 4.94,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          }
        ],
        "note": "Short leg, equal notional to the long. v0 approximates a spread stop with per-leg stops; take both legs off together."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "risk_box",
      "props": {
        "riskUsd": 85.45,
        "riskKind": "max_loss",
        "riskLabel": "max loss",
        "maxLossNote": "Both stops filling is the worst case: $85.45 ($49.98 on ETH, $35.47 on BTC). A spread can lose on both legs at once, which is exactly this case.",
        "fundingPerDayUsd": 0
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "compare_hold",
      "props": {
        "note": "Versus just holding: this risks $85.45 (0.85% of a nominal. Holding $1,437 of ETH outright would keep the market exposure this trade is built to cancel. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "near_30d_high",
        "text": "Price is at the top of its 30-day range. Buying here is buying strength - the stop is far from the nearest support.",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "pair_beta_unstable",
        "text": "The two legs are matched on 30-day beta, which is a measurement of the last 30 days and not a property of the pair. The hedge is exact only for the beta it was sized at, and the spread has no stop on either leg alone.",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "gap_risk_stops",
        "text": "A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "nominal_account_assumed",
        "text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "ETH",
        "url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/ETH"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "BTC",
        "url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/BTC"
      }
    }
  ],
  "market": {
    "ETH": {
      "coin": "ETH",
      "mid": 2619.5,
      "markPx": 2619.5,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 2784786963.9693904,
      "vol24hUsd": 914419939.0343602,
      "maxLeverage": 25,
      "szDecimals": 4,
      "atrPct1h": 0.4742270290317493,
      "ret24hPct": 0.20657205156651148,
      "ret7dPct": 3.738465803334523,
      "rangePos48h": 0.7725183823529411,
      "hi30d": 2669,
      "lo30d": 2224,
      "betaToBtc30d": -0.06062843178187257,
      "asOf": 1789869676039,
      "dex": null
    },
    "BTC": {
      "coin": "BTC",
      "mid": 81111,
      "markPx": 81111,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 3429102127.08228,
      "vol24hUsd": 1176159428.9577873,
      "maxLeverage": 40,
      "szDecimals": 5,
      "atrPct1h": 0.33572529165749504,
      "ret24hPct": -0.25700934579439005,
      "ret7dPct": 4.9518658454531295,
      "rangePos48h": 0.8358070500927643,
      "hi30d": 82268,
      "lo30d": 68898,
      "betaToBtc30d": 1,
      "asOf": 1789869676039,
      "dex": null
    }
  },
  "reader": {
    "structureConfidence": -1,
    "alternatives": [],
    "trace": {
      "ms": 163,
      "input_tokens": 1055,
      "answers": {
        "warn_crowded_long": {
          "value": 0.26,
          "confidence": 0.26
        },
        "warn_near_30d_high": {
          "value": 0.73,
          "confidence": 0.73
        },
        "warn_pair_beta_unstable": {
          "value": 0.7,
          "confidence": 0.7
        },
        "warn_gap_risk_stops": {
          "value": 0.71,
          "confidence": 0.71
        },
        "warn_unhedged_window": {
          "value": 0.27,
          "confidence": 0.27
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "numbersBy": "code",
  "compare": {
    "holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding: this risks $85.45 (0.85% of a nominal. Holding $1,437 of ETH outright would keep the market exposure this trade is built to cancel. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  }
}