thesis terminal

one thesis, the ticket code priced for it, and what happened next

the sentence2026-09-20 01:56Z
SOL runs into the weekend, I want to be long but I can't watch it, keep the risk small Refinement 2: smaller risk
Ticketlong swing

Long SOL swing, days, tiny risk

longSOLlong swingdirectionaldays-$25 / +$37structure: code
metricvalue
max loss$24.98
deployable / total$10,000 (nominal)
funding / day-$0.16
loss at stop$24.97
gap through stop$37.45
best case+$37.45 1.50R
worst case-$24.97 -1.00R
R:R at tp1 / tp21.00 / 2.00
structure fitcode
reader181 ms
Proposed transactions
1longSOLperp$538.044.87 @ 110.481x cross
notional
$538.04
qty
4.87
entry
110.48 market
stop
105.35 +4.64%
tp 1
115.61 +4.64% · ½
tp 2
120.73 +9.28% · ½
lev
1x cross
funding/d
-$0.16
liq px
This asset right now
mid110.15
24h-3.11%
7d+8.33%
atr 1h0.63%
range 48h67.69%
funding apr+10.95%longs pay
open interest$628.89M
the steps
no plan was made for this thesis — the ticket was priced on its own
Warnings & versus holding
2gap riskno wallet
hold at tp1+$24.974.64% move
ticket at tp1+$12.4850.00% of size
delta-$12.48ticket − hold
raw JSON
{
  "structure": "swing",
  "title": "Long SOL swing, days, tiny risk",
  "legs": [
    {
      "kind": "perp",
      "coin": "SOL",
      "side": "long",
      "notionalUsd": 538.04,
      "qty": 4.87,
      "leverage": 1,
      "marginMode": "cross",
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 110.48
      },
      "stop": {
        "px": 105.35,
        "pct": 4.64
      },
      "takeProfits": [
        {
          "px": 115.61,
          "pct": 4.64,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        },
        {
          "px": 120.73,
          "pct": 9.28,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        }
      ],
      "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (4.6% from the 110 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
    }
  ],
  "riskUsd": 24.98,
  "riskKind": "max_loss",
  "horizon": "days",
  "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.16,
  "warnings": [
    "A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
    "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  ],
  "components": [
    {
      "type": "ticket_header",
      "props": {
        "title": "Long SOL swing, days, tiny risk",
        "structure": "swing",
        "view": "directional",
        "horizon": "days",
        "structureFit": null
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "market_strip",
      "props": {
        "coin": "SOL",
        "mid": 110.15,
        "atrPct1h": 0.6321,
        "fundingApr": 10.95,
        "ret24hPct": -3.11,
        "ret7dPct": 8.33,
        "rangePos48h": 0.6769,
        "betaToBtc30d": -0.2725
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 0,
        "kind": "perp",
        "coin": "SOL",
        "side": "long",
        "notionalUsd": 538.04,
        "qty": 4.87,
        "leverage": 1,
        "marginMode": "cross",
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 110.48,
        "stopPx": 105.35,
        "stopPct": 4.64,
        "takeProfits": [
          {
            "px": 115.61,
            "pct": 4.64,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          },
          {
            "px": 120.73,
            "pct": 9.28,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          }
        ],
        "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (4.6% from the 110 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "risk_box",
      "props": {
        "riskUsd": 24.98,
        "riskKind": "max_loss",
        "riskLabel": "max loss",
        "maxLossNote": "The stop at 105 is 4.6% from the 110 entry and costs about $24.98 if it fills (4.87 x the 110-105 gap). Cross margin at 1x posts $538.04; a gap through the stop can cost more than the stop.",
        "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.16
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "compare_hold",
      "props": {
        "note": "Versus just holding: this risks $24.98 (0.25% of a nominal. $538.04 of SOL held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "gap_risk_stops",
        "text": "A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "nominal_account_assumed",
        "text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "SOL",
        "url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/SOL"
      }
    }
  ],
  "market": {
    "SOL": {
      "coin": "SOL",
      "mid": 110.15,
      "markPx": 110.15,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 628891780.266,
      "vol24hUsd": 150086700.04980007,
      "maxLeverage": 20,
      "szDecimals": 2,
      "atrPct1h": 0.6320884666383445,
      "ret24hPct": -3.1137303192892873,
      "ret7dPct": 8.33005507474429,
      "rangePos48h": 0.6769230769230778,
      "hi30d": 114.35,
      "lo30d": 84.017,
      "betaToBtc30d": -0.27245897988237794,
      "asOf": 1789869380253,
      "dex": null
    },
    "BTC": {
      "coin": "BTC",
      "mid": 81128,
      "markPx": 81128,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 3428862239.6935997,
      "vol24hUsd": 1174704336.6652899,
      "maxLeverage": 40,
      "szDecimals": 5,
      "atrPct1h": 0.32460346735521944,
      "ret24hPct": -0.7365716383213039,
      "ret7dPct": 5.029581968592622,
      "rangePos48h": 0.8424682395644283,
      "hi30d": 82268,
      "lo30d": 68898,
      "betaToBtc30d": 1,
      "asOf": 1789869380253,
      "dex": null
    }
  },
  "reader": {
    "structureConfidence": -1,
    "alternatives": [],
    "trace": {
      "ms": 181,
      "input_tokens": 711,
      "answers": {
        "warn_crowded_long": {
          "value": 0.18,
          "confidence": 0.18
        },
        "warn_gap_risk_stops": {
          "value": 0.94,
          "confidence": 0.94
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "numbersBy": "code",
  "compare": {
    "holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding: this risks $24.98 (0.25% of a nominal. $538.04 of SOL held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  }
}
Stats
atr 1d3.10%
vs 30d high-3.67%114.35
vs 30d low+31.10%84.017
beta btc-0.27
vol 24h$150.09M
vol / oi0.24
the check
the reader has not checked a plan for this thesis
outcomes
4hprovisional2026-09-20 01:56Z → 2026-09-20 03:16Zunsigned
SOL110.18 → 107.75
ticket p&l-$12.33of risk-49.35%hold the same net exposure-$11.84versus hold-$0.49fees-$0.48funding-$0.01
#legsidenotionalentryexitp&lclosed
0SOL perplong$538.04110.18107.75-$12.32time
Provisional: the exit is the current mid after 1.33h, not the 4h deadline. Not stored, not signed, and it moves with the market.
entry basis: SOL next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
Counts are small and the sample is one regime; this is a record, not a forecast.
receipts1 signed
  • thesis#272026-09-20 01:56Z5a1adfbc71d9b315c3e14999…raw