the sentence2026-09-20 01:56Z
SOL runs into the weekend, I want to be long but I can't watch it, keep the risk small Refinement 2: smaller risk
Ticketlong swing
Long SOL swing, days, tiny risk
longSOLlong swingdirectionaldays-$25 / +$37structure: code| metric | value |
|---|---|
| max loss | $24.98 |
| deployable / total | $10,000 (nominal) |
| funding / day | -$0.16 |
| loss at stop | $24.97 |
| gap through stop | $37.45 |
| best case | +$37.45 1.50R |
| worst case | -$24.97 -1.00R |
| R:R at tp1 / tp2 | 1.00 / 2.00 |
| structure fit | code |
| reader | 181 ms |
Proposed transactions
1longSOLperp$538.044.87 @ 110.481x cross
- notional
- $538.04
- qty
- 4.87
- entry
- 110.48 market
- stop
- 105.35 +4.64%
- tp 1
- 115.61 +4.64% · ½
- tp 2
- 120.73 +9.28% · ½
- lev
- 1x cross
- funding/d
- -$0.16
- liq px
- –
This asset right now
mid110.15
24h-3.11%
7d+8.33%
atr 1h0.63%
range 48h67.69%
funding apr+10.95%longs pay
open interest$628.89M
the steps
no plan was made for this thesis — the ticket was priced on its own
Warnings & versus holding
2gap riskno wallet
hold at tp1+$24.974.64% move
ticket at tp1+$12.4850.00% of size
delta-$12.48ticket − hold
raw JSON
{
"structure": "swing",
"title": "Long SOL swing, days, tiny risk",
"legs": [
{
"kind": "perp",
"coin": "SOL",
"side": "long",
"notionalUsd": 538.04,
"qty": 4.87,
"leverage": 1,
"marginMode": "cross",
"entry": {
"type": "market",
"px": 110.48
},
"stop": {
"px": 105.35,
"pct": 4.64
},
"takeProfits": [
{
"px": 115.61,
"pct": 4.64,
"sizeFrac": 0.5
},
{
"px": 120.73,
"pct": 9.28,
"sizeFrac": 0.5
}
],
"note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (4.6% from the 110 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
}
],
"riskUsd": 24.98,
"riskKind": "max_loss",
"horizon": "days",
"fundingPerDayUsd": -0.16,
"warnings": [
"A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
"No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
],
"components": [
{
"type": "ticket_header",
"props": {
"title": "Long SOL swing, days, tiny risk",
"structure": "swing",
"view": "directional",
"horizon": "days",
"structureFit": null
}
},
{
"type": "market_strip",
"props": {
"coin": "SOL",
"mid": 110.15,
"atrPct1h": 0.6321,
"fundingApr": 10.95,
"ret24hPct": -3.11,
"ret7dPct": 8.33,
"rangePos48h": 0.6769,
"betaToBtc30d": -0.2725
}
},
{
"type": "leg_row",
"props": {
"index": 0,
"kind": "perp",
"coin": "SOL",
"side": "long",
"notionalUsd": 538.04,
"qty": 4.87,
"leverage": 1,
"marginMode": "cross",
"entryType": "market",
"entryPx": 110.48,
"stopPx": 105.35,
"stopPct": 4.64,
"takeProfits": [
{
"px": 115.61,
"pct": 4.64,
"sizeFrac": 0.5
},
{
"px": 120.73,
"pct": 9.28,
"sizeFrac": 0.5
}
],
"note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (4.6% from the 110 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
}
},
{
"type": "risk_box",
"props": {
"riskUsd": 24.98,
"riskKind": "max_loss",
"riskLabel": "max loss",
"maxLossNote": "The stop at 105 is 4.6% from the 110 entry and costs about $24.98 if it fills (4.87 x the 110-105 gap). Cross margin at 1x posts $538.04; a gap through the stop can cost more than the stop.",
"fundingPerDayUsd": -0.16
}
},
{
"type": "compare_hold",
"props": {
"note": "Versus just holding: this risks $24.98 (0.25% of a nominal. $538.04 of SOL held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
}
},
{
"type": "warning",
"props": {
"key": "gap_risk_stops",
"text": "A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
"severity": "warn"
}
},
{
"type": "warning",
"props": {
"key": "nominal_account_assumed",
"text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
"severity": "info"
}
},
{
"type": "hl_link",
"props": {
"coin": "SOL",
"url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/SOL"
}
}
],
"market": {
"SOL": {
"coin": "SOL",
"mid": 110.15,
"markPx": 110.15,
"fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
"oiUsd": 628891780.266,
"vol24hUsd": 150086700.04980007,
"maxLeverage": 20,
"szDecimals": 2,
"atrPct1h": 0.6320884666383445,
"ret24hPct": -3.1137303192892873,
"ret7dPct": 8.33005507474429,
"rangePos48h": 0.6769230769230778,
"hi30d": 114.35,
"lo30d": 84.017,
"betaToBtc30d": -0.27245897988237794,
"asOf": 1789869380253,
"dex": null
},
"BTC": {
"coin": "BTC",
"mid": 81128,
"markPx": 81128,
"fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
"oiUsd": 3428862239.6935997,
"vol24hUsd": 1174704336.6652899,
"maxLeverage": 40,
"szDecimals": 5,
"atrPct1h": 0.32460346735521944,
"ret24hPct": -0.7365716383213039,
"ret7dPct": 5.029581968592622,
"rangePos48h": 0.8424682395644283,
"hi30d": 82268,
"lo30d": 68898,
"betaToBtc30d": 1,
"asOf": 1789869380253,
"dex": null
}
},
"reader": {
"structureConfidence": -1,
"alternatives": [],
"trace": {
"ms": 181,
"input_tokens": 711,
"answers": {
"warn_crowded_long": {
"value": 0.18,
"confidence": 0.18
},
"warn_gap_risk_stops": {
"value": 0.94,
"confidence": 0.94
}
}
}
},
"numbersBy": "code",
"compare": {
"holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding: this risks $24.98 (0.25% of a nominal. $538.04 of SOL held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
}
}Stats
atr 1d3.10%
vs 30d high-3.67%114.35
vs 30d low+31.10%84.017
beta btc-0.27
vol 24h$150.09M
vol / oi0.24
the check
the reader has not checked a plan for this thesis
outcomes
4hprovisional2026-09-20 01:56Z → 2026-09-20 03:16Zunsigned
SOL110.18 → 107.75
ticket p&l-$12.33of risk-49.35%hold the same net exposure-$11.84versus hold-$0.49fees-$0.48funding-$0.01
| # | leg | side | notional | entry | exit | p&l | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | SOL perp | long | $538.04 | 110.18 | 107.75 | -$12.32 | time |
Provisional: the exit is the current mid after 1.33h, not the 4h deadline. Not stored, not signed, and it moves with the market.
entry basis: SOL next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
Counts are small and the sample is one regime; this is a record, not a forecast.
receipts1 signed