thesis terminal

one thesis, the ticket code priced for it, and what happened next

the sentence2026-09-21 10:33Z
SOL runs into the weekend, I want to be long but I can't watch it, keep the risk small
Ticketlong swing

Long SOL swing, days, small risk

longSOLlong swingdirectionaldays-$50 / +$75structure: code
metricvalue
max loss$49.92
deployable / total$10,000 (nominal)
funding / day-$0.16
loss at stop$49.90
gap through stop$74.85
best case+$74.85 1.50R
worst case-$49.90 -1.00R
R:R at tp1 / tp21.00 / 2.00
structure fitcode
Proposed transactions
1longSOLperp$541.814.67 @ 116.021x cross
notional
$541.81
qty
4.67
entry
116.02 market
stop
105.33 +9.21%
tp 1
126.71 +9.21% · ½
tp 2
137.39 +18.42% · ½
lev
1x cross
funding/d
-$0.16
liq px
This asset right now
mid115.67
24h+6.94%
7d+13.51%
atr 1h1.25%
range 48h87.07%
funding apr+10.95%longs pay
open interest$699.6M
the steps
no plan was made for this thesis — the ticket was priced on its own
Warnings & versus holding
3top of rangegap riskno wallet
hold at tp1+$49.909.21% move
ticket at tp1+$24.9550.00% of size
delta-$24.95ticket − hold
raw JSON
{
  "structure": "swing",
  "title": "Long SOL swing, days, small risk",
  "legs": [
    {
      "kind": "perp",
      "coin": "SOL",
      "side": "long",
      "notionalUsd": 541.81,
      "qty": 4.67,
      "leverage": 1,
      "marginMode": "cross",
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 116.02
      },
      "stop": {
        "px": 105.33,
        "pct": 9.21
      },
      "takeProfits": [
        {
          "px": 126.71,
          "pct": 9.21,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        },
        {
          "px": 137.39,
          "pct": 18.42,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        }
      ],
      "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (9.2% from the 116 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
    }
  ],
  "riskUsd": 49.92,
  "riskKind": "max_loss",
  "horizon": "days",
  "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.16,
  "warnings": [
    "Price is at the top of its 30-day range. Buying here is buying strength - the stop is far from the nearest support.",
    "A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
    "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  ],
  "components": [
    {
      "type": "ticket_header",
      "props": {
        "title": "Long SOL swing, days, small risk",
        "structure": "swing",
        "view": "directional",
        "horizon": "days",
        "structureFit": null
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "market_strip",
      "props": {
        "coin": "SOL",
        "mid": 115.67,
        "atrPct1h": 1.2533,
        "fundingApr": 10.95,
        "ret24hPct": 6.94,
        "ret7dPct": 13.51,
        "rangePos48h": 0.8707,
        "betaToBtc30d": -0.1729
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 0,
        "kind": "perp",
        "coin": "SOL",
        "side": "long",
        "notionalUsd": 541.81,
        "qty": 4.67,
        "leverage": 1,
        "marginMode": "cross",
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 116.02,
        "stopPx": 105.33,
        "stopPct": 9.21,
        "takeProfits": [
          {
            "px": 126.71,
            "pct": 9.21,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          },
          {
            "px": 137.39,
            "pct": 18.42,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          }
        ],
        "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (9.2% from the 116 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "risk_box",
      "props": {
        "riskUsd": 49.92,
        "riskKind": "max_loss",
        "riskLabel": "max loss",
        "maxLossNote": "The stop at 105 is 9.2% from the 116 entry and costs about $49.92 if it fills (4.67 x the 116-105 gap). Cross margin at 1x posts $541.81; a gap through the stop can cost more than the stop.",
        "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.16
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "compare_hold",
      "props": {
        "note": "Versus just holding: this risks $49.92 (0.50% of a nominal. $541.81 of SOL held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "near_30d_high",
        "text": "Price is at the top of its 30-day range. Buying here is buying strength - the stop is far from the nearest support.",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "gap_risk_stops",
        "text": "A stop is not a guarantee. Crypto gaps through levels on weekends and around news; the fill can be far worse than the price shown.",
        "severity": "warn"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "nominal_account_assumed",
        "text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "SOL",
        "url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/SOL"
      }
    }
  ],
  "market": {
    "SOL": {
      "coin": "SOL",
      "mid": 115.67,
      "markPx": 115.67,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 699602979.1148002,
      "vol24hUsd": 348548897.5962003,
      "maxLeverage": 20,
      "szDecimals": 2,
      "atrPct1h": 1.2532949030621057,
      "ret24hPct": 6.943417159763321,
      "ret7dPct": 13.51324828263003,
      "rangePos48h": 0.870662460567823,
      "hi30d": 116.9,
      "lo30d": 87.688,
      "betaToBtc30d": -0.1728633703282225,
      "asOf": 1789986838818,
      "dex": null
    },
    "BTC": {
      "coin": "BTC",
      "mid": 84280,
      "markPx": 84280,
      "fundingApr": 43.7589156,
      "oiUsd": 3576715389.380008,
      "vol24hUsd": 3109292859.389378,
      "maxLeverage": 40,
      "szDecimals": 5,
      "atrPct1h": 0.8516467305633528,
      "ret24hPct": 4.845431361572428,
      "ret7dPct": 7.921223141342493,
      "rangePos48h": 0.7720478325859492,
      "hi30d": 85500,
      "lo30d": 74903,
      "betaToBtc30d": 1,
      "asOf": 1789986838818,
      "dex": null
    }
  },
  "reader": {
    "structureConfidence": -1,
    "alternatives": [],
    "trace": {
      "ms": 276,
      "input_tokens": 706,
      "answers": {
        "warn_near_30d_high": {
          "value": 0.89,
          "confidence": 0.89
        },
        "warn_gap_risk_stops": {
          "value": 0.93,
          "confidence": 0.93
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "numbersBy": "code",
  "compare": {
    "holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding: this risks $49.92 (0.50% of a nominal. $541.81 of SOL held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  }
}
Stats
atr 1d6.14%
vs 30d high-1.05%116.9
vs 30d low+31.91%87.688
beta btc-0.17
vol 24h$348.55M
vol / oi0.50
the check
the reader has not checked a plan for this thesis
outcomes2 of 3 rungs
4h2026-09-21 10:33Z → 2026-09-21 14:33Z/ledger/161
SOL115.67 → 118.55
ticket p&l+$12.97of risk+25.99%hold the same net exposure+$13.49versus hold-$0.52fees-$0.49funding-$0.03
#legsidenotionalentryexitp&lclosed
0SOL perplong$541.81115.67118.55+$13.00time
entry basis: SOL next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
1d2026-09-21 10:33Z → 2026-09-22 10:33Z/ledger/182
SOL115.67 → 116.53
ticket p&l+$3.38of risk+6.77%hold the same net exposure+$4.03versus hold-$0.65fees-$0.49funding-$0.16
#legsidenotionalentryexitp&lclosed
0SOL perplong$541.81115.67116.53+$3.54time
entry basis: SOL next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
7dprovisional2026-09-21 10:33Z → 2026-09-22 20:09Zunsigned
SOL115.67 → 118.06
ticket p&l+$10.46of risk+20.95%hold the same net exposure+$11.17versus hold-$0.72fees-$0.49funding-$0.22
#legsidenotionalentryexitp&lclosed
0SOL perplong$541.81115.67118.06+$10.68time
Provisional: the exit is the current mid after 33.60h, not the 7d deadline. Not stored, not signed, and it moves with the market.
entry basis: SOL next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
Counts are small and the sample is one regime; this is a record, not a forecast.
receipts3 signed
  • thesis#1492026-09-21 10:33Zb6eb5bb013a18f1f73b28e5c…raw
  • resolution#1612026-09-21 14:35Z365336c1e38069ad2afc50e4…raw
  • resolution#1822026-09-22 10:36Zafcacf93fbefce4a2a4e89a5…raw