thesis terminal

one thesis, the ticket code priced for it, and what happened next

the sentence2026-09-20 01:35Z
BTC runs hot Refinement 2: I think BTC goes up over the next week and I want to be long with small risk.
Ticketlong swing

Long BTC swing, days, small risk

longBTClong swingdirectionaldaysstructure: code
metricvalue
max loss$50.00
deployable / total$10,000 (nominal)
funding / day-$0.63
loss at stop$49.99
gap through stop$74.99
R:R at tp1 / tp21.00 / 2.00
structure fitcode
reader101 ms
Proposed transactions
#sidecoinkindnotionalqtyleventrystoptp 1tp 2liq pxfunding/d
1longBTCperp$2,091.830.025721x cross81,331 market79,387 +2.39%83,275 +2.39% · ½85,219 +4.78% · ½-$0.63
1longBTCperp
notional
$2,091.83
qty
0.02572
entry
81,331 market
stop
79,387 +2.39%
tp 1
83,275 +2.39% · ½
tp 2
85,219 +4.78% · ½
lev
1x cross
funding/d
-$0.63
liq px
This asset right now
mid81,088
24h-0.79%
7d+4.98%
atr 1h0.32%
range 48h83.52%
funding apr+10.95%longs pay
open interest$3.44B
the steps
no plan was made for this thesis — the ticket was priced on its own
Warnings & versus holding
2top of rangeno wallet
hold at tp1+$49.992.39% move
ticket at tp1+$25.0050.00% of size
delta-$25.00ticket − hold
raw JSON
{
  "structure": "swing",
  "title": "Long BTC swing, days, small risk",
  "legs": [
    {
      "kind": "perp",
      "coin": "BTC",
      "side": "long",
      "notionalUsd": 2091.83,
      "qty": 0.02572,
      "leverage": 1,
      "marginMode": "cross",
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 81331
      },
      "stop": {
        "px": 79387,
        "pct": 2.39
      },
      "takeProfits": [
        {
          "px": 83275,
          "pct": 2.39,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        },
        {
          "px": 85219,
          "pct": 4.78,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        }
      ],
      "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (2.4% from the 81,331 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
    }
  ],
  "riskUsd": 50,
  "riskKind": "max_loss",
  "horizon": "days",
  "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.63,
  "warnings": [
    "Price is at the top of its 30-day range. Buying here is buying strength - the stop is far from the nearest support.",
    "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  ],
  "components": [
    {
      "type": "ticket_header",
      "props": {
        "title": "Long BTC swing, days, small risk",
        "structure": "swing",
        "view": "directional",
        "horizon": "days",
        "structureFit": null
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "market_strip",
      "props": {
        "coin": "BTC",
        "mid": 81087.8,
        "atrPct1h": 0.3246,
        "fundingApr": 10.95,
        "ret24hPct": -0.79,
        "ret7dPct": 4.98,
        "rangePos48h": 0.8352,
        "betaToBtc30d": 1
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 0,
        "kind": "perp",
        "coin": "BTC",
        "side": "long",
        "notionalUsd": 2091.83,
        "qty": 0.02572,
        "leverage": 1,
        "marginMode": "cross",
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 81331,
        "stopPx": 79387,
        "stopPct": 2.39,
        "takeProfits": [
          {
            "px": 83275,
            "pct": 2.39,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          },
          {
            "px": 85219,
            "pct": 4.78,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          }
        ],
        "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (2.4% from the 81,331 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "risk_box",
      "props": {
        "riskUsd": 50,
        "riskKind": "max_loss",
        "riskLabel": "max loss",
        "maxLossNote": "The stop at 79,387 is 2.4% from the 81,331 entry and costs about $50.00 if it fills (0.02572 x the 81,331-79,387 gap). Cross margin at 1x posts $2,092; a gap through the stop can cost more than the stop.",
        "fundingPerDayUsd": -0.63
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "compare_hold",
      "props": {
        "note": "Versus just holding: this risks $50.00 (0.50% of a nominal. $2,092 of BTC held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "near_30d_high",
        "text": "Price is at the top of its 30-day range. Buying here is buying strength - the stop is far from the nearest support.",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "nominal_account_assumed",
        "text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "BTC",
        "url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/BTC"
      }
    }
  ],
  "market": {
    "BTC": {
      "coin": "BTC",
      "mid": 81087.8,
      "markPx": 81087.8,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 3435662731.8415484,
      "vol24hUsd": 1169508453.8532896,
      "maxLeverage": 40,
      "szDecimals": 5,
      "atrPct1h": 0.32460346735521944,
      "ret24hPct": -0.7857579836045514,
      "ret7dPct": 4.977538417720706,
      "rangePos48h": 0.835172413793104,
      "hi30d": 82268,
      "lo30d": 68898,
      "betaToBtc30d": 1,
      "asOf": 1789868112913,
      "dex": null
    }
  },
  "reader": {
    "structureConfidence": -1,
    "alternatives": [],
    "trace": {
      "ms": 101,
      "input_tokens": 701,
      "answers": {
        "warn_crowded_long": {
          "value": 0.44,
          "confidence": 0.44
        },
        "warn_near_30d_high": {
          "value": 0.89,
          "confidence": 0.89
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "numbersBy": "code",
  "compare": {
    "holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding: this risks $50.00 (0.50% of a nominal. $2,092 of BTC held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  }
}
Stats
atr 1d1.59%
vs 30d high-1.43%82,268
vs 30d low+17.69%68,898
beta btc1.00
vol 24h$1.17B
vol / oi0.34
the check
the reader has not checked a plan for this thesis
outcomes
4hprovisional2026-09-20 01:35Z → 2026-09-20 02:37Zunsigned
BTC81,086 → 80,944
ticket p&l-$5.59of risk-11.17%hold the same net exposure-$3.68versus hold-$1.91fees-$1.88funding-$0.03
#legsidenotionalentryexitp&lclosed
0BTC perplong$2,091.8381,08680,944-$5.56time
Provisional: the exit is the current mid after 1.03h, not the 4h deadline. Not stored, not signed, and it moves with the market.
entry basis: BTC next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
Counts are small and the sample is one regime; this is a record, not a forecast.
receipts1 signed
  • thesis#172026-09-20 01:35Z9d0d29f1d8efc60015656e12…raw