the sentence2026-09-20 01:35Z
BTC runs hot Refinement 2: I think BTC goes up over the next week and I want to be long with small risk.
Ticketlong swing
Long BTC swing, days, small risk
longBTClong swingdirectionaldaysstructure: code| metric | value |
|---|---|
| max loss | $50.00 |
| deployable / total | $10,000 (nominal) |
| funding / day | -$0.63 |
| loss at stop | $49.99 |
| gap through stop | $74.99 |
| R:R at tp1 / tp2 | 1.00 / 2.00 |
| structure fit | code |
| reader | 101 ms |
Proposed transactions
| # | side | coin | kind | notional | qty | lev | entry | stop | tp 1 | tp 2 | liq px | funding/d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | long | BTC | perp | $2,091.83 | 0.02572 | 1x cross | 81,331 market | 79,387 +2.39% | 83,275 +2.39% · ½ | 85,219 +4.78% · ½ | – | -$0.63 |
1longBTCperp
- notional
- $2,091.83
- qty
- 0.02572
- entry
- 81,331 market
- stop
- 79,387 +2.39%
- tp 1
- 83,275 +2.39% · ½
- tp 2
- 85,219 +4.78% · ½
- lev
- 1x cross
- funding/d
- -$0.63
- liq px
- –
This asset right now
mid81,088
24h-0.79%
7d+4.98%
atr 1h0.32%
range 48h83.52%
funding apr+10.95%longs pay
open interest$3.44B
the steps
no plan was made for this thesis — the ticket was priced on its own
Warnings & versus holding
2top of rangeno wallet
hold at tp1+$49.992.39% move
ticket at tp1+$25.0050.00% of size
delta-$25.00ticket − hold
raw JSON
{
"structure": "swing",
"title": "Long BTC swing, days, small risk",
"legs": [
{
"kind": "perp",
"coin": "BTC",
"side": "long",
"notionalUsd": 2091.83,
"qty": 0.02572,
"leverage": 1,
"marginMode": "cross",
"entry": {
"type": "market",
"px": 81331
},
"stop": {
"px": 79387,
"pct": 2.39
},
"takeProfits": [
{
"px": 83275,
"pct": 2.39,
"sizeFrac": 0.5
},
{
"px": 85219,
"pct": 4.78,
"sizeFrac": 0.5
}
],
"note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (2.4% from the 81,331 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
}
],
"riskUsd": 50,
"riskKind": "max_loss",
"horizon": "days",
"fundingPerDayUsd": -0.63,
"warnings": [
"Price is at the top of its 30-day range. Buying here is buying strength - the stop is far from the nearest support.",
"No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
],
"components": [
{
"type": "ticket_header",
"props": {
"title": "Long BTC swing, days, small risk",
"structure": "swing",
"view": "directional",
"horizon": "days",
"structureFit": null
}
},
{
"type": "market_strip",
"props": {
"coin": "BTC",
"mid": 81087.8,
"atrPct1h": 0.3246,
"fundingApr": 10.95,
"ret24hPct": -0.79,
"ret7dPct": 4.98,
"rangePos48h": 0.8352,
"betaToBtc30d": 1
}
},
{
"type": "leg_row",
"props": {
"index": 0,
"kind": "perp",
"coin": "BTC",
"side": "long",
"notionalUsd": 2091.83,
"qty": 0.02572,
"leverage": 1,
"marginMode": "cross",
"entryType": "market",
"entryPx": 81331,
"stopPx": 79387,
"stopPct": 2.39,
"takeProfits": [
{
"px": 83275,
"pct": 2.39,
"sizeFrac": 0.5
},
{
"px": 85219,
"pct": 4.78,
"sizeFrac": 0.5
}
],
"note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (2.4% from the 81,331 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
}
},
{
"type": "risk_box",
"props": {
"riskUsd": 50,
"riskKind": "max_loss",
"riskLabel": "max loss",
"maxLossNote": "The stop at 79,387 is 2.4% from the 81,331 entry and costs about $50.00 if it fills (0.02572 x the 81,331-79,387 gap). Cross margin at 1x posts $2,092; a gap through the stop can cost more than the stop.",
"fundingPerDayUsd": -0.63
}
},
{
"type": "compare_hold",
"props": {
"note": "Versus just holding: this risks $50.00 (0.50% of a nominal. $2,092 of BTC held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
}
},
{
"type": "warning",
"props": {
"key": "near_30d_high",
"text": "Price is at the top of its 30-day range. Buying here is buying strength - the stop is far from the nearest support.",
"severity": "info"
}
},
{
"type": "warning",
"props": {
"key": "nominal_account_assumed",
"text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
"severity": "info"
}
},
{
"type": "hl_link",
"props": {
"coin": "BTC",
"url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/BTC"
}
}
],
"market": {
"BTC": {
"coin": "BTC",
"mid": 81087.8,
"markPx": 81087.8,
"fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
"oiUsd": 3435662731.8415484,
"vol24hUsd": 1169508453.8532896,
"maxLeverage": 40,
"szDecimals": 5,
"atrPct1h": 0.32460346735521944,
"ret24hPct": -0.7857579836045514,
"ret7dPct": 4.977538417720706,
"rangePos48h": 0.835172413793104,
"hi30d": 82268,
"lo30d": 68898,
"betaToBtc30d": 1,
"asOf": 1789868112913,
"dex": null
}
},
"reader": {
"structureConfidence": -1,
"alternatives": [],
"trace": {
"ms": 101,
"input_tokens": 701,
"answers": {
"warn_crowded_long": {
"value": 0.44,
"confidence": 0.44
},
"warn_near_30d_high": {
"value": 0.89,
"confidence": 0.89
}
}
}
},
"numbersBy": "code",
"compare": {
"holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding: this risks $50.00 (0.50% of a nominal. $2,092 of BTC held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
}
}Stats
atr 1d1.59%
vs 30d high-1.43%82,268
vs 30d low+17.69%68,898
beta btc1.00
vol 24h$1.17B
vol / oi0.34
the check
the reader has not checked a plan for this thesis
outcomes
4hprovisional2026-09-20 01:35Z → 2026-09-20 02:37Zunsigned
BTC81,086 → 80,944
ticket p&l-$5.59of risk-11.17%hold the same net exposure-$3.68versus hold-$1.91fees-$1.88funding-$0.03
| # | leg | side | notional | entry | exit | p&l | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | BTC perp | long | $2,091.83 | 81,086 | 80,944 | -$5.56 | time |
Provisional: the exit is the current mid after 1.03h, not the 4h deadline. Not stored, not signed, and it moves with the market.
entry basis: BTC next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
Counts are small and the sample is one regime; this is a record, not a forecast.
receipts1 signed