the sentence2026-09-19 18:09Z
long BTC swing over the next few days, normal risk
Ticketlong swing
Long BTC swing, days, normal risk
longBTClong swingdirectionaldaysstructure: code| metric | value |
|---|---|
| max loss | $99.99 |
| deployable / total | $10,000 (nominal) |
| funding / day | -$1.28 |
| loss at stop | $99.99 |
| gap through stop | $149.99 |
| R:R at tp1 / tp2 | 1.00 / 2.00 |
| structure fit | code |
| reader | 320 ms |
Proposed transactions
| # | side | coin | kind | notional | qty | lev | entry | stop | tp 1 | tp 2 | liq px | funding/d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | long | BTC | perp | $4,254.99 | 0.05208 | 2x cross | 81,701 market | 79,781 +2.35% | 83,621 +2.35% · ½ | 85,541 +4.70% · ½ | 41,872 | -$1.28 |
1longBTCperp
- notional
- $4,254.99
- qty
- 0.05208
- entry
- 81,701 market
- stop
- 79,781 +2.35%
- tp 1
- 83,621 +2.35% · ½
- tp 2
- 85,541 +4.70% · ½
- lev
- 2x cross
- funding/d
- -$1.28
- liq px
- 41,872
This asset right now
mid81,457
24h+0.51%
7d+5.54%
atr 1h0.32%
range 48h90.68%
funding apr+10.95%longs pay
open interest$3.54B
the steps
no plan was made for this thesis — the ticket was priced on its own
Warnings & versus holding
2top of rangeno wallet
hold at tp1+$99.992.35% move
ticket at tp1+$50.0050.00% of size
delta-$50.00ticket − hold
raw JSON
{
"structure": "swing",
"title": "Long BTC swing, days, normal risk",
"legs": [
{
"kind": "perp",
"coin": "BTC",
"side": "long",
"notionalUsd": 4254.99,
"qty": 0.05208,
"leverage": 2,
"marginMode": "cross",
"entry": {
"type": "market",
"px": 81701
},
"stop": {
"px": 79781,
"pct": 2.35
},
"takeProfits": [
{
"px": 83621,
"pct": 2.35,
"sizeFrac": 0.5
},
{
"px": 85541,
"pct": 4.7,
"sizeFrac": 0.5
}
],
"note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (2.4% from the 81,701 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
}
],
"riskUsd": 99.99,
"riskKind": "max_loss",
"horizon": "days",
"fundingPerDayUsd": -1.28,
"warnings": [
"Price is at the top of its 30-day range. Buying here is buying strength - the stop is far from the nearest support.",
"No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
],
"components": [
{
"type": "ticket_header",
"props": {
"title": "Long BTC swing, days, normal risk",
"structure": "swing",
"view": "directional",
"horizon": "days",
"structureFit": null
}
},
{
"type": "market_strip",
"props": {
"coin": "BTC",
"mid": 81457,
"atrPct1h": 0.3201,
"fundingApr": 10.95,
"ret24hPct": 0.51,
"ret7dPct": 5.54,
"rangePos48h": 0.9068,
"betaToBtc30d": 1
}
},
{
"type": "leg_row",
"props": {
"index": 0,
"kind": "perp",
"coin": "BTC",
"side": "long",
"notionalUsd": 4254.99,
"qty": 0.05208,
"leverage": 2,
"marginMode": "cross",
"entryType": "market",
"entryPx": 81701,
"stopPx": 79781,
"stopPct": 2.35,
"takeProfits": [
{
"px": 83621,
"pct": 2.35,
"sizeFrac": 0.5
},
{
"px": 85541,
"pct": 4.7,
"sizeFrac": 0.5
}
],
"note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (2.4% from the 81,701 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
}
},
{
"type": "risk_box",
"props": {
"riskUsd": 99.99,
"riskKind": "max_loss",
"riskLabel": "max loss",
"maxLossNote": "The stop at 79,781 is 2.4% from the 81,701 entry and costs about $99.99 if it fills (0.05208 x the 81,701-79,781 gap). Cross margin at 2x posts $2,128; a gap through the stop can cost more than the stop.",
"fundingPerDayUsd": -1.28
}
},
{
"type": "compare_hold",
"props": {
"note": "Versus just holding: this risks $99.99 (1.00% of a nominal. $4,255 of BTC held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
}
},
{
"type": "warning",
"props": {
"key": "near_30d_high",
"text": "Price is at the top of its 30-day range. Buying here is buying strength - the stop is far from the nearest support.",
"severity": "info"
}
},
{
"type": "warning",
"props": {
"key": "nominal_account_assumed",
"text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
"severity": "info"
}
},
{
"type": "hl_link",
"props": {
"coin": "BTC",
"url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/BTC"
}
}
],
"market": {
"BTC": {
"coin": "BTC",
"mid": 81457,
"markPx": 81457,
"fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
"oiUsd": 3537388526.63024,
"vol24hUsd": 1562171154.0830336,
"maxLeverage": 40,
"szDecimals": 5,
"atrPct1h": 0.3200779686092209,
"ret24hPct": 0.5133204180600037,
"ret7dPct": 5.538856209997145,
"rangePos48h": 0.9068441064638784,
"hi30d": 82268,
"lo30d": 68001,
"betaToBtc30d": 1,
"asOf": 1789841376636,
"dex": null
}
},
"reader": {
"structureConfidence": -1,
"alternatives": [],
"trace": {
"ms": 320,
"input_tokens": 683,
"answers": {
"warn_crowded_long": {
"value": 0.38,
"confidence": 0.38
},
"warn_near_30d_high": {
"value": 0.88,
"confidence": 0.88
}
}
}
},
"numbersBy": "code",
"compare": {
"holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding: this risks $99.99 (1.00% of a nominal. $4,255 of BTC held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
}
}Stats
atr 1d1.57%
vs 30d high-0.99%82,268
vs 30d low+19.79%68,001
beta btc1.00
vol 24h$1.56B
vol / oi0.44
the check
the reader has not checked a plan for this thesis
outcomes
4hprovisional2026-09-19 18:09Z → 2026-09-19 20:53Zunsigned
BTC81,506 → 81,168
ticket p&l-$21.63of risk-21.64%hold the same net exposure-$17.67versus hold-$3.96fees-$3.82funding-$0.14
| # | leg | side | notional | entry | exit | p&l | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | BTC perp | long | $4,254.99 | 81,506 | 81,168 | -$21.49 | time |
Provisional: the exit is the current mid after 2.73h, not the 4h deadline. Not stored, not signed, and it moves with the market.
entry basis: BTC next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
Counts are small and the sample is one regime; this is a record, not a forecast.
receipts1 signed