thesis terminal

one thesis, the ticket code priced for it, and what happened next

the sentence2026-09-19 18:09Z
long BTC swing over the next few days, normal risk
Ticketlong swing

Long BTC swing, days, normal risk

longBTClong swingdirectionaldaysstructure: code
metricvalue
max loss$99.99
deployable / total$10,000 (nominal)
funding / day-$1.28
loss at stop$99.99
gap through stop$149.99
R:R at tp1 / tp21.00 / 2.00
structure fitcode
reader320 ms
Proposed transactions
#sidecoinkindnotionalqtyleventrystoptp 1tp 2liq pxfunding/d
1longBTCperp$4,254.990.052082x cross81,701 market79,781 +2.35%83,621 +2.35% · ½85,541 +4.70% · ½41,872-$1.28
1longBTCperp
notional
$4,254.99
qty
0.05208
entry
81,701 market
stop
79,781 +2.35%
tp 1
83,621 +2.35% · ½
tp 2
85,541 +4.70% · ½
lev
2x cross
funding/d
-$1.28
liq px
41,872
This asset right now
mid81,457
24h+0.51%
7d+5.54%
atr 1h0.32%
range 48h90.68%
funding apr+10.95%longs pay
open interest$3.54B
the steps
no plan was made for this thesis — the ticket was priced on its own
Warnings & versus holding
2top of rangeno wallet
hold at tp1+$99.992.35% move
ticket at tp1+$50.0050.00% of size
delta-$50.00ticket − hold
raw JSON
{
  "structure": "swing",
  "title": "Long BTC swing, days, normal risk",
  "legs": [
    {
      "kind": "perp",
      "coin": "BTC",
      "side": "long",
      "notionalUsd": 4254.99,
      "qty": 0.05208,
      "leverage": 2,
      "marginMode": "cross",
      "entry": {
        "type": "market",
        "px": 81701
      },
      "stop": {
        "px": 79781,
        "pct": 2.35
      },
      "takeProfits": [
        {
          "px": 83621,
          "pct": 2.35,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        },
        {
          "px": 85541,
          "pct": 4.7,
          "sizeFrac": 0.5
        }
      ],
      "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (2.4% from the 81,701 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
    }
  ],
  "riskUsd": 99.99,
  "riskKind": "max_loss",
  "horizon": "days",
  "fundingPerDayUsd": -1.28,
  "warnings": [
    "Price is at the top of its 30-day range. Buying here is buying strength - the stop is far from the nearest support.",
    "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  ],
  "components": [
    {
      "type": "ticket_header",
      "props": {
        "title": "Long BTC swing, days, normal risk",
        "structure": "swing",
        "view": "directional",
        "horizon": "days",
        "structureFit": null
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "market_strip",
      "props": {
        "coin": "BTC",
        "mid": 81457,
        "atrPct1h": 0.3201,
        "fundingApr": 10.95,
        "ret24hPct": 0.51,
        "ret7dPct": 5.54,
        "rangePos48h": 0.9068,
        "betaToBtc30d": 1
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "leg_row",
      "props": {
        "index": 0,
        "kind": "perp",
        "coin": "BTC",
        "side": "long",
        "notionalUsd": 4254.99,
        "qty": 0.05208,
        "leverage": 2,
        "marginMode": "cross",
        "entryType": "market",
        "entryPx": 81701,
        "stopPx": 79781,
        "stopPct": 2.35,
        "takeProfits": [
          {
            "px": 83621,
            "pct": 2.35,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          },
          {
            "px": 85541,
            "pct": 4.7,
            "sizeFrac": 0.5
          }
        ],
        "note": "Stop is 1.5x the daily ATR (the 14-bar 1h ATR scaled by sqrt(24), because this prototype only fetches 1h candles) for a days-long hold (2.4% from the 81,701 entry, not from the mid); targets take half the size at 1R and half at 2R."
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "risk_box",
      "props": {
        "riskUsd": 99.99,
        "riskKind": "max_loss",
        "riskLabel": "max loss",
        "maxLossNote": "The stop at 79,781 is 2.4% from the 81,701 entry and costs about $99.99 if it fills (0.05208 x the 81,701-79,781 gap). Cross margin at 2x posts $2,128; a gap through the stop can cost more than the stop.",
        "fundingPerDayUsd": -1.28
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "compare_hold",
      "props": {
        "note": "Versus just holding: this risks $99.99 (1.00% of a nominal. $4,255 of BTC held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "near_30d_high",
        "text": "Price is at the top of its 30-day range. Buying here is buying strength - the stop is far from the nearest support.",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "warning",
      "props": {
        "key": "nominal_account_assumed",
        "text": "No wallet was supplied, so every dollar figure is scaled to a nominal. Connect a wallet to size this for real. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)",
        "severity": "info"
      }
    },
    {
      "type": "hl_link",
      "props": {
        "coin": "BTC",
        "url": "https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/BTC"
      }
    }
  ],
  "market": {
    "BTC": {
      "coin": "BTC",
      "mid": 81457,
      "markPx": 81457,
      "fundingApr": 10.950000000000001,
      "oiUsd": 3537388526.63024,
      "vol24hUsd": 1562171154.0830336,
      "maxLeverage": 40,
      "szDecimals": 5,
      "atrPct1h": 0.3200779686092209,
      "ret24hPct": 0.5133204180600037,
      "ret7dPct": 5.538856209997145,
      "rangePos48h": 0.9068441064638784,
      "hi30d": 82268,
      "lo30d": 68001,
      "betaToBtc30d": 1,
      "asOf": 1789841376636,
      "dex": null
    }
  },
  "reader": {
    "structureConfidence": -1,
    "alternatives": [],
    "trace": {
      "ms": 320,
      "input_tokens": 683,
      "answers": {
        "warn_crowded_long": {
          "value": 0.38,
          "confidence": 0.38
        },
        "warn_near_30d_high": {
          "value": 0.88,
          "confidence": 0.88
        }
      }
    }
  },
  "numbersBy": "code",
  "compare": {
    "holdUsdcNote": "Versus just holding: this risks $99.99 (1.00% of a nominal. $4,255 of BTC held outright has no stop, no leverage and no funding. (a clause naming what the wallet holds was cut)"
  }
}
Stats
atr 1d1.57%
vs 30d high-0.99%82,268
vs 30d low+19.79%68,001
beta btc1.00
vol 24h$1.56B
vol / oi0.44
the check
the reader has not checked a plan for this thesis
outcomes
4hprovisional2026-09-19 18:09Z → 2026-09-19 20:53Zunsigned
BTC81,506 → 81,168
ticket p&l-$21.63of risk-21.64%hold the same net exposure-$17.67versus hold-$3.96fees-$3.82funding-$0.14
#legsidenotionalentryexitp&lclosed
0BTC perplong$4,254.9981,50681,168-$21.49time
Provisional: the exit is the current mid after 2.73h, not the 4h deadline. Not stored, not signed, and it moves with the market.
entry basis: BTC next_open_1m; stops and targets checked on 1m bars
Counts are small and the sample is one regime; this is a record, not a forecast.
receipts1 signed
  • thesis#12026-09-19 18:09Z3fed9dd64fbf889c5d3bd958…raw